Matchday 16 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 20, 2015
Athletic 2–0 Levante: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Levante 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Athletic win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 2 | 2.11 |
 Levante | 0 | 0.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Athletic about even · −9 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 9, 1 ends level, Levante win 0.
- 1 ATH 1 LEV 0
- 2 ATH 1 LEV 0
- 3 ATH 2 LEV 0
- 4 ATH 3 LEV 1
- 5 ATH 2 LEV 0
- 6 ATH 3 LEV 0
- 7 ATH 3 LEV 0
- 8 ATH 5 LEV 1
- 9 ATH 6 LEV 1
- 10 ATH 0 LEV 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 85%, 11% end level, Levante win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 39.7% |
| Athletic by 2 | 24.1% |
| Athletic by 1 | 21.5% |
| Draw | 11.4% |
| Levante by 1 | 2.7% |
| Levante by 2 | 0.6% |
| Levante by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 19 | 2 | 2.11 | −0.11 |
 Levante | 6 | 0 | 0.32 | −0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 54' | Mikel San José Domínguez scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 81' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shot | 0.53 |
| 89' | Iker Muniain Goñi didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Nabil Ghilas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% ATH |
| 2 | 8' | Markel Susaeta Laskurain didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% LEV |
| 3 | 28' | Nabil Ghilas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% ATH |
| 4 | 45' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% LEV |
| 5 | 48' | Markel Susaeta Laskurain didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% LEV |
| 6 | 54' | Mikel San José Domínguez scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +29% ATH |
| 7 | 59' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +2% LEV |
| 8 | 81' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +2% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 94% · draw 4% · Levante 1%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 85% · draw 11% · Levante 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Espanyol 1–0 Las Palmas Dec 19, 2015 · replay 62% for Espanyol
- Betis 0–0 Sevilla Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Valencia 2–2 Getafe Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Deportivo 2–0 Eibar Dec 19, 2015 · replay 80% for Deportivo
- Real Madrid 10–2 Rayo Dec 20, 2015 · replay 99% for Real Madrid
- Málaga 1–0 Atlético Dec 20, 2015 · replay 63% for Málaga
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Villarreal Dec 20, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Granada 0–2 Celta Dec 20, 2015 · replay 92% for Celta
- Sporting 1–3 Barcelona Feb 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona