Matchday 16 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 20, 2015
Real Sociedad 0–2 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Real Sociedad 2–0, and the replays lean Villarreal’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Real Sociedad, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.0).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 1.15 |
 Villarreal | 2 | 1.00 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Villarreal lucky · −44 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 3, 3 end level, Villarreal win 4.
- 1 RSO 1 VIL 0
- 2 RSO 2 VIL 1
- 3 RSO 2 VIL 0
- 4 RSO 3 VIL 3
- 5 RSO 2 VIL 2
- 6 RSO 2 VIL 2
- 7 RSO 0 VIL 3
- 8 RSO 2 VIL 4
- 9 RSO 1 VIL 2
- 10 RSO 0 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 30%, 28% end level, Villarreal win 42%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 2.8% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 8.0% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 18.9% |
| Draw | 28.0% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 23.3% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 12.5% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 6.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 17 | 0 | 1.15 | −1.15 |
 Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 1.00 | +1.00 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 26' | Denis Suárez Fernández scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 87' | Denis Suárez Fernández scored from a shot | 0.75 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% VIL |
| 2 | 26' | The game turned hereDenis Suárez Fernández scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +26% VIL |
| 3 | 36' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% VIL |
| 4 | 52' | Aritz Elustondo Irribaria didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% VIL |
| 5 | 59' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% VIL |
| 6 | 64' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +8% VIL |
| 7 | 74' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% VIL |
| 8 | 85' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 15% · draw 23% · Villarreal 63%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 30% · draw 28% · Villarreal 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · Real Sociedad · Villarreal
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Espanyol 1–0 Las Palmas Dec 19, 2015 · replay 62% for Espanyol
- Betis 0–0 Sevilla Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Valencia 2–2 Getafe Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
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- Athletic 2–0 Levante Dec 20, 2015 · replay 91% for Athletic
- Real Madrid 10–2 Rayo Dec 20, 2015 · replay 99% for Real Madrid
- Málaga 1–0 Atlético Dec 20, 2015 · replay 63% for Málaga
- Granada 0–2 Celta Dec 20, 2015 · replay 92% for Celta
- Sporting 1–3 Barcelona Feb 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona