Matchday 16 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 19, 2015
Valencia 2–2 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Valencia and Getafe drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Valencia win 5 of 10, Getafe 2, and 3 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.5.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −18 Valencia about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 5, 3 end level, Getafe win 2.
- 1 VAL 2 GET 1
- 2 VAL 1 GET 0
- 3 VAL 1 GET 0
- 4 VAL 2 GET 0
- 5 VAL 3 GET 0
- 6 VAL 0 GET 0
- 7 VAL 1 GET 1
- 8 VAL 1 GET 1
- 9 VAL 0 GET 2
- 10 VAL 0 GET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 51%, 32% end level, Getafe win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 7.7% |
| Valencia by 2 | 14.9% |
| Valencia by 1 | 28.8% |
| Draw | 32.5% |
| Getafe by 1 | 12.5% |
| Getafe by 2 | 2.9% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 12 | 2 | 1.31 | +0.69 |
 Getafe | 9 | 2 | 0.51 | +1.49 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a free kick | 0.09 |
| 14' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 21' | Ángel Lafita Castillo scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 34' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo scored from a shot | 0.77 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +23% GET |
| 2 | 14' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +24% VAL |
| 3 | 21' | Ángel Lafita Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +24% GET |
| 4 | 34' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo scored from a shotFinishing · 77% chance | +7% VAL |
| 5 | 41' | Danilo Barbosa da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% GET |
| 6 | 56' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% GET |
| 7 | 85' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% GET |
| 8 | 90' | Ángel Lafita Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 63% · draw 26% · Getafe 11%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 51% · draw 32% · Getafe 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Espanyol 1–0 Las Palmas Dec 19, 2015 · replay 62% for Espanyol
- Betis 0–0 Sevilla Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Deportivo 2–0 Eibar Dec 19, 2015 · replay 80% for Deportivo
- Athletic 2–0 Levante Dec 20, 2015 · replay 91% for Athletic
- Real Madrid 10–2 Rayo Dec 20, 2015 · replay 99% for Real Madrid
- Málaga 1–0 Atlético Dec 20, 2015 · replay 63% for Málaga
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Villarreal Dec 20, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Granada 0–2 Celta Dec 20, 2015 · replay 92% for Celta
- Sporting 1–3 Barcelona Feb 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona