Matchday 16 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 19, 2015
Espanyol 1–0 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Las Palmas 1–0, and the replays lean Espanyol’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Las Palmas, 2 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 1 | 1.53 |
 Las Palmas | 0 | 1.17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Espanyol lucky · −38 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 5, 2 end level, Las Palmas win 3.
- 1 ESP 2 LPA 1
- 2 ESP 1 LPA 0
- 3 ESP 2 LPA 0
- 4 ESP 2 LPA 0
- 5 ESP 5 LPA 1
- 6 ESP 3 LPA 3
- 7 ESP 0 LPA 0
- 8 ESP 0 LPA 2
- 9 ESP 1 LPA 2
- 10 ESP 1 LPA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 49%, 24% end level, Las Palmas win 26%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 11.2% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 15.7% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 22.6% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 15.7% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 7.6% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 3.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 13 | 1 | 1.53 | −0.53 |
 Las Palmas | 9 | 0 | 1.17 | −1.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
| 66' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shot | 0.44 |
| 68' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +13% ESP |
| 2 | 17' | Nauzet Alemán Viera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% ESP |
| 3 | 32' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LPA |
| 4 | 35' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +2% LPA |
| 5 | 58' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% LPA |
| 6 | 60' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +5% LPA |
| 7 | 66' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo scored from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +20% ESP |
| 8 | 68' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +13% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 46% · draw 27% · Las Palmas 27%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Espanyol
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 49% · draw 24% · Las Palmas 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · Espanyol · Las Palmas
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