Matchday 16 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 20, 2015
Málaga 1–0 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Atlético 1–0, and the replays lean Málaga’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Atlético, 3 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 1 | 1.12 |
 Atlético Madrid | 0 | 0.59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Málaga lucky · −37 Atlético
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 5, 3 end level, Atlético win 2.
- 1 MAL 1 ATM 0
- 2 MAL 1 ATM 0
- 3 MAL 2 ATM 0
- 4 MAL 2 ATM 0
- 5 MAL 3 ATM 0
- 6 MAL 1 ATM 1
- 7 MAL 1 ATM 1
- 8 MAL 0 ATM 0
- 9 MAL 0 ATM 2
- 10 MAL 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 47%, 32% end level, Atlético win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 7.1% |
| Málaga by 2 | 13.4% |
| Málaga by 1 | 27.0% |
| Draw | 31.8% |
| Atlético by 1 | 15.4% |
| Atlético by 2 | 4.1% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 17 | 1 | 1.12 | −0.12 |
 Atlético | 6 | 0 | 0.59 | −0.59 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 70' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 85' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% ATM |
| 2 | 5' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chanceCharles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% ATM |
| 3 | 36' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% ATM |
| 4 | 36' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATM |
| 5 | 51' | José Luis García del Pozo didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% ATM |
| 6 | 70' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +17% MAL |
| 7 | 85' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% ATM |
| 8 | 85' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +43% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 49% · draw 31% · Atlético 20%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 47% · draw 32% · Atlético 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 16, 2015-16
- Espanyol 1–0 Las Palmas Dec 19, 2015 · replay 62% for Espanyol
- Betis 0–0 Sevilla Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Valencia 2–2 Getafe Dec 19, 2015 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Deportivo 2–0 Eibar Dec 19, 2015 · replay 80% for Deportivo
- Athletic 2–0 Levante Dec 20, 2015 · replay 91% for Athletic
- Real Madrid 10–2 Rayo Dec 20, 2015 · replay 99% for Real Madrid
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Villarreal Dec 20, 2015 · replay 56% for Villarreal
- Granada 0–2 Celta Dec 20, 2015 · replay 92% for Celta
- Sporting 1–3 Barcelona Feb 17, 2016 · replay 91% for Barcelona