Matchday 16 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 19, 2015
Deportivo 2–0 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Deportivo beat Eibar 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Deportivo win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Deportivo made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 2 | 1.78 |
 Eibar | 0 | 0.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Deportivo about even · −20 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 7, 2 end level, Eibar win 1.
- 1 DEP 1 EIB 0
- 2 DEP 2 EIB 1
- 3 DEP 2 EIB 0
- 4 DEP 2 EIB 0
- 5 DEP 3 EIB 0
- 6 DEP 3 EIB 0
- 7 DEP 4 EIB 0
- 8 DEP 0 EIB 0
- 9 DEP 1 EIB 1
- 10 DEP 0 EIB 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 70%, 20% end level, Eibar win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Deportivo by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 23.3% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 21.8% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 25.2% |
| Draw | 20.0% |
| Eibar by 1 | 7.4% |
| Eibar by 2 | 1.8% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 14 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.78 | +0.22 |
 Eibar | 13 | 0 | 0.66 | −0.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 40' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 72' | Alejandro Arribas Garrido scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% EIB |
| 2 | 15' | Aleksandar Pantić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% DEP |
| 3 | 17' | Fayçal Fajr didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% EIB |
| 4 | 24' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% DEP |
| 5 | 30' | Luis Carlos Correia Pinto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% EIB |
| 6 | 31' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% EIB |
| 7 | 40' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% DEP |
| 8 | 72' | Alejandro Arribas Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chanceAlejandro Arribas Garrido scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 89% · draw 8% · Eibar 3%
- Final margin
- Deportivo by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Deportivo by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 70% · draw 20% · Eibar 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Deportivo win 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 16 matches, 2015-16 · Deportivo · Eibar
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