Matchday 17 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 30, 2015
Celta 0–1 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Celta 1–0, and the replays lean Athletic’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Celta, 3 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 0 | 0.45 |
 Athletic Club | 1 | 1.18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Athletic lucky · −26 Celta
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 1, 3 end level, Athletic win 6.
- 1 CEL 1 ATH 0
- 2 CEL 0 ATH 0
- 3 CEL 0 ATH 0
- 4 CEL 0 ATH 0
- 5 CEL 0 ATH 3
- 6 CEL 0 ATH 2
- 7 CEL 0 ATH 2
- 8 CEL 0 ATH 1
- 9 CEL 0 ATH 1
- 10 CEL 0 ATH 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 12%, 29% end level, Athletic win 60%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Celta by 2 | 2.3% |
| Celta by 1 | 9.2% |
| Draw | 28.5% |
| Athletic by 1 | 29.2% |
| Athletic by 2 | 19.2% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 11.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 7 | 0 | 0.45 | −0.45 |
 Athletic | 13 | 1 | 1.18 | −0.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 70' | Raúl García Escudero scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 90' | Javier Eraso Goñi didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Sabin Merino Zuloaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CEL |
| 2 | 18' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% ATH |
| 3 | 21' | Xabier Etxeita Gorritxategi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% CEL |
| 4 | 52' | Daniel Wass didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATH |
| 5 | 70' | The game turned hereRaúl García Escudero scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +25% ATH |
| 6 | 72' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% ATH |
| 7 | 76' | Daniel Wass didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATH |
| 8 | 79' | Hugo Mallo Novegil didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 13% · draw 29% · Athletic 57%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 12% · draw 29% · Athletic 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Getafe 0–0 Deportivo Dec 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Levante 0–1 Málaga Dec 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Málaga
- Las Palmas 4–1 Granada Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 2–0 Sporting Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Eibar
- Rayo 0–2 Atlético Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Real Madrid 3–1 Real Sociedad Dec 30, 2015 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 2–0 Espanyol Dec 30, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 4–0 Betis Dec 30, 2015 · replay 95% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 1–0 Valencia Dec 31, 2015 · replay 44% for Villarreal