Matchday 17 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 30, 2015
Real Madrid 3–1 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Real Sociedad 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 3.2 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 3 | 3.17 |
 Real Sociedad | 1 | 0.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Real Madrid about even · −9 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Madrid win 9, 1 ends level, Real Sociedad win 0.
- 1 RMA 2 RSO 1
- 2 RMA 2 RSO 1
- 3 RMA 2 RSO 0
- 4 RMA 3 RSO 1
- 5 RMA 3 RSO 0
- 6 RMA 4 RSO 1
- 7 RMA 5 RSO 1
- 8 RMA 6 RSO 1
- 9 RMA 6 RSO 0
- 10 RMA 1 RSO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Madrid win 87%, 9% end level, Real Sociedad win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 52.2% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 19.4% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 15.3% |
| Draw | 8.8% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 3.3% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 0.8% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Madrid | 23 (2 pen) | 3 | 3.17 | −0.17 |
 Real Sociedad | 13 | 1 | 0.66 | +0.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 41' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 48' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 66' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 85' | Lucas Vázquez Iglesias scored from a shot | 0.19 |
When it happened
Real Madrid’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +6% RSO |
| 2 | 23' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +19% RSO |
| 3 | 41' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% RMA |
| 4 | 48' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +28% RSO |
| 5 | 50' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% RSO |
| 6 | 57' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +6% RSO |
| 7 | 66' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +34% RMA |
| 8 | 80' | Rubén Pardo Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Madrid 97% · draw 2% · Real Sociedad 1%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Real Sociedad
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Madrid 87% · draw 9% · Real Sociedad 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 17 matches, 2015-16 · Real Madrid · Real Sociedad
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Celta 0–1 Athletic Dec 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Athletic
- Getafe 0–0 Deportivo Dec 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
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- Sevilla 2–0 Espanyol Dec 30, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 4–0 Betis Dec 30, 2015 · replay 95% for Barcelona
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