Matchday 17 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 30, 2015
Eibar 2–0 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Eibar beat Sporting 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Eibar win 6 of 10, 3 end level. Eibar made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 2 | 1.12 |
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 0.47 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Eibar about even · −25 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eibar win 6, 3 end level, Sporting win 1.
- 1 EIB 1 SPO 0
- 2 EIB 1 SPO 0
- 3 EIB 1 SPO 0
- 4 EIB 3 SPO 1
- 5 EIB 2 SPO 0
- 6 EIB 3 SPO 0
- 7 EIB 0 SPO 0
- 8 EIB 0 SPO 0
- 9 EIB 0 SPO 0
- 10 EIB 1 SPO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Eibar win 62%, 28% end level, Sporting win 11%. The line is what actually happened: Eibar by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eibar by 3+ | 11.9% |
| Eibar by 2 | 19.5% |
| Eibar by 1 | 30.1% |
| Draw | 27.9% |
| Sporting by 1 | 8.6% |
| Sporting by 2 | 1.8% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Eibar | 15 | 2 | 1.12 | +0.88 |
 Sporting | 6 | 0 | 0.47 | −0.47 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 54' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 61' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.57 |
When it happened
Eibar’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Daniel García Carrillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SPO |
| 2 | 23' | Alen Halilović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% EIB |
| 3 | 29' | Saúl Berjón Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SPO |
| 4 | 31' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SPO |
| 5 | 38' | Gonzalo Escalante didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SPO |
| 6 | 46' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% EIB |
| 7 | 54' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +28% EIB |
| 8 | 61' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shotFinishing · 57% chance | +4% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eibar 83% · draw 13% · Sporting 4%
- Final margin
- Eibar by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Eibar 62% · draw 28% · Sporting 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Eibar win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 17 matches, 2015-16 · Eibar · Sporting
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
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