Matchday 17 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 31, 2015
Villarreal 1–0 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Valencia 1–0, but the replays lean toward Valencia: 3 wins in 10 to Villarreal’s 2, 5 end level. The chances were close to even (0.3 expected goals to 0.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 1 | 0.35 |
 Valencia | 0 | 0.53 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Villarreal lucky · −56 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 2, 5 end level, Valencia win 3.
- 1 VIL 1 VAL 0
- 2 VIL 1 VAL 0
- 3 VIL 0 VAL 0
- 4 VIL 0 VAL 0
- 5 VIL 0 VAL 0
- 6 VIL 0 VAL 0
- 7 VIL 0 VAL 0
- 8 VIL 0 VAL 2
- 9 VIL 0 VAL 1
- 10 VIL 0 VAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 21%, 46% end level, Valencia win 33%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 3.3% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 17.1% |
| Draw | 46.3% |
| Valencia by 1 | 24.4% |
| Valencia by 2 | 6.9% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 9 | 1 | 0.35 | +0.65 |
 Valencia | 6 | 0 | 0.53 | −0.53 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 63' | Bruno Soriano Llido scored from a free kick | 0.08 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Bruno Soriano Llido didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +2% VAL |
| 2 | 50' | Denis Suárez Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% VAL |
| 3 | 51' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% VIL |
| 4 | 56' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% VIL |
| 5 | 59' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +9% VIL |
| 6 | 60' | Aderllan Leandro de Jesus Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% VIL |
| 7 | 63' | Bruno Soriano Llido scored from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +32% VIL |
| 8 | 65' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 21% · draw 46% · Valencia 33%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 21% · draw 46% · Valencia 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Celta 0–1 Athletic Dec 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Athletic
- Getafe 0–0 Deportivo Dec 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Levante 0–1 Málaga Dec 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Málaga
- Las Palmas 4–1 Granada Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 2–0 Sporting Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Eibar
- Rayo 0–2 Atlético Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Real Madrid 3–1 Real Sociedad Dec 30, 2015 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 2–0 Espanyol Dec 30, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 4–0 Betis Dec 30, 2015 · replay 95% for Barcelona