luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 17 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 30, 2015

Getafe 0–0 Deportivo: who deserved to win?

Getafe and Deportivo drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Getafe win 5 of 10, Deportivo 1, and 4 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.3.

Full time

GoalsxG
Getafe 0 0.96
Deportivo La Coruña 0 0.30

December 30, 2015 · Coliseum Alfonso Pérez · Referee: Alberto Undiano Mallenco

Luck index −19 Getafe about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Getafe win 5, 4 end level, Deportivo win 1.

  1. 1 GET 1 DEP 0
  2. 2 GET 1 DEP 0
  3. 3 GET 1 DEP 0
  4. 4 GET 2 DEP 0
  5. 5 GET 3 DEP 0
  6. 6 GET 0 DEP 0
  7. 7 GET 0 DEP 0
  8. 8 GET 1 DEP 1
  9. 9 GET 1 DEP 1
  10. 10 GET 1 DEP 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Getafe win 51%, 37% end level, Deportivo win 13%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Getafe by 3+6.3%
Getafe by 214.6%
Getafe by 129.8%
Draw36.7%
Deportivo by 110.7%
Deportivo by 21.6%
Deportivo by 3+0.3%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Getafe1400.96−0.96
Deportivo1000.30−0.30

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Getafe’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Getafe was ahead in it, below while Deportivo was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 24' Santiago Vergini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +4% DEP
2 30' Víctor Rodríguez Romero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +4% DEP
3 33' Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% DEP
4 33' Damián Nicolás Suárez Suárez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% DEP
5 43' Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +3% GET
6 50' Santiago Vergini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +3% DEP
7 62' Víctor Rodríguez Romero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% DEP
8 64' Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% DEP

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Getafe 53% · draw 35% · Deportivo 12%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.5 for Deportivo
Luck-adjusted margin
Getafe by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Getafe 51% · draw 37% · Deportivo 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 17 matches, 2015-16 · Getafe · Deportivo

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