Matchday 17 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 30, 2015
Sevilla 2–0 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Sevilla beat Espanyol 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sevilla win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 0.9.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Sevilla about even · −11 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 8, 1 ends level, Espanyol win 1.
- 1 SEV 1 ESP 0
- 2 SEV 2 ESP 1
- 3 SEV 2 ESP 0
- 4 SEV 2 ESP 0
- 5 SEV 4 ESP 1
- 6 SEV 3 ESP 0
- 7 SEV 4 ESP 0
- 8 SEV 5 ESP 0
- 9 SEV 1 ESP 1
- 10 SEV 1 ESP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 83%, 11% end level, Espanyol win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Sevilla by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 41.8% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 22.1% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 19.0% |
| Draw | 11.4% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 4.2% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 1.3% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 16 | 2 | 2.31 | −0.31 |
 Espanyol | 12 | 0 | 0.89 | −0.89 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Ciro Immobile scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 40' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 42' | Ciro Immobile didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% SEV |
| 2 | 9' | Timothée Kolodziejczak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% ESP |
| 3 | 12' | Ciro Immobile didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% ESP |
| 4 | 15' | Víctor Machín Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +5% ESP |
| 5 | 15' | Ciro Immobile scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +12% SEV |
| 6 | 20' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% SEV |
| 7 | 40' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +8% SEV |
| 8 | 61' | Jorge Franco Alviz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +1% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 89% · draw 8% · Espanyol 4%
- Final margin
- Sevilla by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Sevilla
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 83% · draw 11% · Espanyol 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sevilla win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Celta 0–1 Athletic Dec 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Athletic
- Getafe 0–0 Deportivo Dec 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Levante 0–1 Málaga Dec 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Málaga
- Las Palmas 4–1 Granada Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 2–0 Sporting Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Eibar
- Rayo 0–2 Atlético Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Real Madrid 3–1 Real Sociedad Dec 30, 2015 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 4–0 Betis Dec 30, 2015 · replay 95% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 1–0 Valencia Dec 31, 2015 · replay 44% for Villarreal