Matchday 17 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 30, 2015
Barcelona 4–0 Betis: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Betis 4–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 3.5 expected goals to 1.2. An own goal helped Barcelona.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 4 | 3.46 |
 Real Betis | 0 | 1.20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Barcelona about even · −5 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 9, 1 ends level, Betis win 0.
- 1 BAR 3 BET 2
- 2 BAR 3 BET 1
- 3 BAR 3 BET 0
- 4 BAR 3 BET 0
- 5 BAR 4 BET 0
- 6 BAR 7 BET 2
- 7 BAR 5 BET 0
- 8 BAR 6 BET 0
- 9 BAR 9 BET 1
- 10 BAR 2 BET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 92%, 5% end level, Betis win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 68.3% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 13.7% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 10.2% |
| Draw | 5.1% |
| Betis by 1 | 1.9% |
| Betis by 2 | 0.7% |
| Betis by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 16 (1 pen) | 3 | 3.46 | −0.46 |
 Betis | 13 | 0 | 1.20 | −1.20 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 32' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shot | 0.56 |
| 45' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 60' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 79' | Germán Alejandro Pezzella didn’t score from a shot | 0.58 |
| 82' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.39 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Germán Alejandro Pezzella didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% BAR |
| 2 | 21' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BET |
| 3 | 23' | Álvaro Cejudo Carmona didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BAR |
| 4 | 24' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% BET |
| 5 | 28' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +20% BET |
| 6 | 29' | Own goal by Ivan Rakitić, for BarcelonaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +24% BAR |
| 7 | 32' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini scored from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +5% BAR |
| 8 | 45' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +2% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 95% · draw 4% · Betis 1%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 92% · draw 5% · Betis 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 95% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Celta 0–1 Athletic Dec 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Athletic
- Getafe 0–0 Deportivo Dec 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Levante 0–1 Málaga Dec 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Málaga
- Las Palmas 4–1 Granada Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 2–0 Sporting Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Eibar
- Rayo 0–2 Atlético Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Real Madrid 3–1 Real Sociedad Dec 30, 2015 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 2–0 Espanyol Dec 30, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Villarreal 1–0 Valencia Dec 31, 2015 · replay 44% for Villarreal