Matchday 17 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 30, 2015
Rayo 0–2 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Rayo 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0.52 |
 Atlético Madrid | 2 | 2.11 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Atlético about even · −17 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 1, 2 end level, Atlético win 7.
- 1 RAY 1 ATM 0
- 2 RAY 2 ATM 2
- 3 RAY 0 ATM 0
- 4 RAY 1 ATM 6
- 5 RAY 0 ATM 3
- 6 RAY 0 ATM 3
- 7 RAY 0 ATM 2
- 8 RAY 1 ATM 3
- 9 RAY 0 ATM 1
- 10 RAY 1 ATM 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 9%, 16% end level, Atlético win 75%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.4% |
| Rayo by 2 | 1.4% |
| Rayo by 1 | 7.1% |
| Draw | 16.4% |
| Atlético by 1 | 25.1% |
| Atlético by 2 | 21.3% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 28.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 10 | 0 | 0.52 | −0.52 |
 Atlético | 19 | 2 | 2.11 | −0.11 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 62' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez didn’t score from a shot | 0.52 |
| 87' | Ángel Martín Correa scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 89' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.13 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% ATM |
| 2 | 17' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% RAY |
| 3 | 18' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% RAY |
| 4 | 26' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% RAY |
| 5 | 62' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 52% chance | +19% RAY |
| 6 | 75' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% RAY |
| 7 | 85' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% RAY |
| 8 | 87' | The game turned hereÁngel Martín Correa scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +36% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 2% · draw 6% · Atlético 92%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 9% · draw 16% · Atlético 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 83% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Celta 0–1 Athletic Dec 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Athletic
- Getafe 0–0 Deportivo Dec 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Levante 0–1 Málaga Dec 30, 2015 · replay 82% for Málaga
- Las Palmas 4–1 Granada Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 2–0 Sporting Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Eibar
- Real Madrid 3–1 Real Sociedad Dec 30, 2015 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 2–0 Espanyol Dec 30, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 4–0 Betis Dec 30, 2015 · replay 95% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 1–0 Valencia Dec 31, 2015 · replay 44% for Villarreal