Matchday 17 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 30, 2015
Levante 0–1 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Levante 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Málaga win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Málaga about even · −18 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 1, 2 end level, Málaga win 7.
- 1 LEV 1 MAL 0
- 2 LEV 0 MAL 0
- 3 LEV 0 MAL 0
- 4 LEV 0 MAL 4
- 5 LEV 0 MAL 3
- 6 LEV 0 MAL 2
- 7 LEV 0 MAL 2
- 8 LEV 0 MAL 1
- 9 LEV 1 MAL 2
- 10 LEV 1 MAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 7%, 22% end level, Málaga win 71%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Levante by 2 | 1.1% |
| Levante by 1 | 5.7% |
| Draw | 21.9% |
| Málaga by 1 | 28.0% |
| Málaga by 2 | 22.0% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 21.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 7 | 0 | 0.32 | −0.32 |
 Málaga | 10 | 1 | 1.57 | −0.57 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 35' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 63' | Arthur Etienne Boka didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 78' | Sérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente scored from a free kick | 0.09 |
| 88' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29' | David Navarro Pedrós didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% MAL |
| 2 | 35' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +10% LEV |
| 3 | 50' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% LEV |
| 4 | 62' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% MAL |
| 5 | 63' | Arthur Etienne Boka didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +14% LEV |
| 6 | 74' | Sérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% LEV |
| 7 | 78' | The game turned hereSérgio Paulo Barbosa Valente scored from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +40% MAL |
| 8 | 81' | Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 6% · draw 19% · Málaga 74%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 7% · draw 22% · Málaga 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
- Celta 0–1 Athletic Dec 30, 2015 · replay 74% for Athletic
- Getafe 0–0 Deportivo Dec 30, 2015 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Las Palmas 4–1 Granada Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Las Palmas
- Eibar 2–0 Sporting Dec 30, 2015 · replay 75% for Eibar
- Rayo 0–2 Atlético Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Atlético
- Real Madrid 3–1 Real Sociedad Dec 30, 2015 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Sevilla 2–0 Espanyol Dec 30, 2015 · replay 89% for Sevilla
- Barcelona 4–0 Betis Dec 30, 2015 · replay 95% for Barcelona
- Villarreal 1–0 Valencia Dec 31, 2015 · replay 44% for Villarreal