Matchday 17 · La Liga 2015-16 · December 30, 2015
Las Palmas 4–1 Granada: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Granada 4–1, and the replays lean Las Palmas’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Granada, 2 end level. Las Palmas made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.8. An own goal helped Las Palmas.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 4 | 1.43 |
 Granada | 1 | 0.76 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Las Palmas lucky · −25 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 6, 2 end level, Granada win 2.
- 1 LPA 2 GRA 1
- 2 LPA 1 GRA 0
- 3 LPA 1 GRA 0
- 4 LPA 2 GRA 0
- 5 LPA 3 GRA 0
- 6 LPA 4 GRA 0
- 7 LPA 1 GRA 1
- 8 LPA 2 GRA 2
- 9 LPA 2 GRA 4
- 10 LPA 0 GRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 64%, 22% end level, Granada win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 17.0% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 20.1% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 26.6% |
| Draw | 22.3% |
| Granada by 1 | 10.0% |
| Granada by 2 | 3.4% |
| Granada by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 7 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.43 | +1.57 |
 Granada | 12 | 1 | 0.76 | +0.24 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 49' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 55' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 79' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Nicolás Federico López Alonso didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% LPA |
| 2 | 14' | Nicolás Federico López Alonso didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% LPA |
| 3 | 31' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +24% LPA |
| 4 | 49' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +9% LPA |
| 5 | 55' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% GRA |
| 6 | 64' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +2% GRA |
| 7 | 65' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% LPA |
| 8 | 71' | Dimitri Foulquier didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 84% · draw 12% · Granada 5%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 64% · draw 22% · Granada 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 17 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Granada
More from matchday 17, 2015-16
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