Matchday 18 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 2, 2016
Málaga 2–0 Celta: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Celta 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Málaga win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 2 | 2.64 |
 Celta Vigo | 0 | 0.82 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Málaga about even · −6 Celta
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 9, 1 ends level, Celta win 0.
- 1 MAL 2 CEL 1
- 2 MAL 2 CEL 0
- 3 MAL 5 CEL 3
- 4 MAL 6 CEL 3
- 5 MAL 3 CEL 0
- 6 MAL 4 CEL 0
- 7 MAL 6 CEL 1
- 8 MAL 5 CEL 0
- 9 MAL 7 CEL 0
- 10 MAL 1 CEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 91%, 6% end level, Celta win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 60.8% |
| Málaga by 2 | 17.1% |
| Málaga by 1 | 13.3% |
| Draw | 6.1% |
| Celta by 1 | 2.3% |
| Celta by 2 | 0.4% |
| Celta by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 14 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.64 | −0.64 |
 Celta | 8 | 0 | 0.82 | −0.82 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 25' | Raúl Albentosa Redal scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 65' | Nordin Amrabat didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 74' | Pablo Fornals Malla didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 88' | Ignacio Camacho Barnola didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +18% MAL |
| 2 | 9' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% MAL |
| 3 | 20' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% MAL |
| 4 | 25' | Raúl Albentosa Redal scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +11% MAL |
| 5 | 28' | Pedro Pablo Hernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% MAL |
| 6 | 40' | Daniel Wass didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +3% MAL |
| 7 | 54' | Fabián Ariel Orellana Valenzuela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +0% MAL |
| 8 | 65' | Nordin Amrabat didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +1% CEL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 93% · draw 6% · Celta 2%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 91% · draw 6% · Celta 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 94% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Atlético 1–0 Levante Jan 2, 2016 · replay 66% for Atlético
- Espanyol 0–0 Barcelona Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Rayo 2–2 Real Sociedad Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Athletic 2–2 Las Palmas Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Betis 0–4 Eibar Jan 3, 2016 · replay 55% for Eibar
- Granada 2–1 Sevilla Jan 3, 2016 · replay 30% for Granada
- Deportivo 1–2 Villarreal Jan 3, 2016 · replay 61% for Villarreal
- Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Getafe Jan 4, 2016 · replay 58% for Getafe