Matchday 18 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 3, 2016
Athletic 2–2 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Athletic and Las Palmas drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Athletic win 7 of 10, Las Palmas 1, and 2 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 2 | 2.13 |
 Las Palmas | 2 | 0.78 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −32 Athletic unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 7, 2 end level, Las Palmas win 1.
- 1 ATH 2 LPA 1
- 2 ATH 2 LPA 1
- 3 ATH 2 LPA 0
- 4 ATH 2 LPA 0
- 5 ATH 3 LPA 0
- 6 ATH 3 LPA 0
- 7 ATH 4 LPA 0
- 8 ATH 0 LPA 0
- 9 ATH 2 LPA 2
- 10 ATH 3 LPA 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 74%, 16% end level, Las Palmas win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 28.3% |
| Athletic by 2 | 21.3% |
| Athletic by 1 | 23.9% |
| Draw | 16.2% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 7.8% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 1.8% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 15 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.13 | −0.13 |
 Las Palmas | 12 | 2 | 0.78 | +1.22 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 16' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 61' | José Vicente Gómez Umpiérrez scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 65' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 80' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +8% LPA |
| 2 | 16' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% ATH |
| 3 | 32' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% ATH |
| 4 | 61' | José Vicente Gómez Umpiérrez scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +30% LPA |
| 5 | 65' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +33% ATH |
| 6 | 80' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +41% LPA |
| 7 | 84' | Javier Eraso Goñi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +12% LPA |
| 8 | 91' | Iker Muniain Goñi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 74% · draw 17% · Las Palmas 9%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 74% · draw 16% · Las Palmas 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Athletic · Las Palmas
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