Matchday 18 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 3, 2016
Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Valencia and Real Madrid drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Valencia win 6 of 10, Real Madrid 2, and 2 end level. Valencia made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 2 | 2.62 |
 Real Madrid | 2 | 1.15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −22 Valencia about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Valencia win 6, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 2.
- 1 VAL 1 RMA 0
- 2 VAL 3 RMA 2
- 3 VAL 2 RMA 0
- 4 VAL 2 RMA 0
- 5 VAL 3 RMA 0
- 6 VAL 4 RMA 0
- 7 VAL 1 RMA 1
- 8 VAL 3 RMA 3
- 9 VAL 1 RMA 3
- 10 VAL 1 RMA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Valencia win 62%, 19% end level, Real Madrid win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Valencia by 3+ | 21.1% |
| Valencia by 2 | 19.1% |
| Valencia by 1 | 22.2% |
| Draw | 19.3% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 10.4% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 5.5% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 2.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | 12 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.62 | −0.62 |
 Real Madrid | 17 | 2 | 1.15 | +0.85 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 45' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 81' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 82' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shot | 0.54 |
| 92' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
When it happened
Valencia’s chance of winning
As low as 6% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +21% RMA |
| 2 | 30' | João Pedro Cavaco Cancelo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% RMA |
| 3 | 38' | Aymen Abdennour didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +9% RMA |
| 4 | 45' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% VAL |
| 5 | 81' | Gareth Frank Bale scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +39% RMA |
| 6 | 82' | Francisco Alcácer García scored from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +21% VAL |
| 7 | 92' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +19% RMA |
| 8 | 92' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Valencia 73% · draw 16% · Real Madrid 11%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Valencia by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Valencia 62% · draw 19% · Real Madrid 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Málaga 2–0 Celta Jan 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Málaga
- Atlético 1–0 Levante Jan 2, 2016 · replay 66% for Atlético
- Espanyol 0–0 Barcelona Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Rayo 2–2 Real Sociedad Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Athletic 2–2 Las Palmas Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Betis 0–4 Eibar Jan 3, 2016 · replay 55% for Eibar
- Granada 2–1 Sevilla Jan 3, 2016 · replay 30% for Granada
- Deportivo 1–2 Villarreal Jan 3, 2016 · replay 61% for Villarreal
- Sporting 1–2 Getafe Jan 4, 2016 · replay 58% for Getafe