Matchday 18 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 2, 2016
Atlético 1–0 Levante: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Levante 1–0, and the replays lean Atlético’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Levante, 3 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 1 | 1.17 |
 Levante | 0 | 0.58 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Atlético lucky · −34 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 5, 3 end level, Levante win 2.
- 1 ATM 1 LEV 0
- 2 ATM 2 LEV 1
- 3 ATM 2 LEV 1
- 4 ATM 3 LEV 1
- 5 ATM 3 LEV 0
- 6 ATM 1 LEV 1
- 7 ATM 1 LEV 1
- 8 ATM 0 LEV 0
- 9 ATM 0 LEV 2
- 10 ATM 0 LEV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 51%, 31% end level, Levante win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 8.6% |
| Atlético by 2 | 15.3% |
| Atlético by 1 | 27.0% |
| Draw | 31.0% |
| Levante by 1 | 13.7% |
| Levante by 2 | 3.4% |
| Levante by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 16 | 1 | 1.17 | −0.17 |
 Levante | 9 | 0 | 0.58 | −0.58 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 80' | Thomas Teye Partey scored from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27' | Stefan Savić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% LEV |
| 2 | 28' | José Antonio García Rabasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% ATM |
| 3 | 54' | Jordi Xumetra Feliu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% ATM |
| 4 | 67' | Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LEV |
| 5 | 69' | Jordi Xumetra Feliu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% ATM |
| 6 | 75' | Rubén García Santos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% ATM |
| 7 | 80' | Thomas Teye Partey scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +26% ATM |
| 8 | 83' | Roger Martí Salvador didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 52% · draw 31% · Levante 17%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 51% · draw 31% · Levante 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Málaga 2–0 Celta Jan 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Málaga
- Espanyol 0–0 Barcelona Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Rayo 2–2 Real Sociedad Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Athletic 2–2 Las Palmas Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Betis 0–4 Eibar Jan 3, 2016 · replay 55% for Eibar
- Granada 2–1 Sevilla Jan 3, 2016 · replay 30% for Granada
- Deportivo 1–2 Villarreal Jan 3, 2016 · replay 61% for Villarreal
- Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Getafe Jan 4, 2016 · replay 58% for Getafe