Matchday 18 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 3, 2016
Rayo 2–2 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Rayo and Real Sociedad drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Rayo win 4 of 10, Real Sociedad 3, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 0.8).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 1.00 |
 Real Sociedad | 2 | 0.84 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −6 Rayo about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 4, 3 end level, Real Sociedad win 3.
- 1 RAY 1 RSO 0
- 2 RAY 1 RSO 0
- 3 RAY 3 RSO 1
- 4 RAY 4 RSO 1
- 5 RAY 1 RSO 1
- 6 RAY 1 RSO 1
- 7 RAY 1 RSO 1
- 8 RAY 0 RSO 2
- 9 RAY 1 RSO 2
- 10 RAY 0 RSO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 40%, 32% end level, Real Sociedad win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 4.7% |
| Rayo by 2 | 11.3% |
| Rayo by 1 | 23.6% |
| Draw | 31.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 18.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 7.2% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 2.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 13 | 2 | 1.00 | +1.00 |
 Real Sociedad | 15 | 2 | 0.84 | +1.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Diego Javier Llorente Ríos scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 26' | Aritz Elustondo Irribaria scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 50' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 62' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Diego Javier Llorente Ríos scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +20% RAY |
| 2 | 26' | Aritz Elustondo Irribaria scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +19% RSO |
| 3 | 49' | Rubén Pardo Gutiérrez didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +3% RAY |
| 4 | 50' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +19% RAY |
| 5 | 62' | Armindo Tué Na Bangna scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +33% RSO |
| 6 | 69' | Diego Javier Llorente Ríos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% RSO |
| 7 | 78' | José Raúl Baena Urdiales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% RSO |
| 8 | 85' | Xabier Prieto Argarate didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 38% · draw 33% · Real Sociedad 29%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Real Sociedad
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 40% · draw 32% · Real Sociedad 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Málaga 2–0 Celta Jan 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Málaga
- Atlético 1–0 Levante Jan 2, 2016 · replay 66% for Atlético
- Espanyol 0–0 Barcelona Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Athletic 2–2 Las Palmas Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Betis 0–4 Eibar Jan 3, 2016 · replay 55% for Eibar
- Granada 2–1 Sevilla Jan 3, 2016 · replay 30% for Granada
- Deportivo 1–2 Villarreal Jan 3, 2016 · replay 61% for Villarreal
- Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Getafe Jan 4, 2016 · replay 58% for Getafe