Matchday 18 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 3, 2016
Deportivo 1–2 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Deportivo 2–1, and the replays lean Villarreal’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Deportivo, 3 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 0.97 |
 Villarreal | 2 | 1.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Villarreal lucky · −39 Deportivo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Deportivo win 3, 3 end level, Villarreal win 4.
- 1 DEP 2 VIL 1
- 2 DEP 1 VIL 0
- 3 DEP 2 VIL 0
- 4 DEP 0 VIL 0
- 5 DEP 2 VIL 2
- 6 DEP 1 VIL 1
- 7 DEP 0 VIL 3
- 8 DEP 0 VIL 2
- 9 DEP 1 VIL 2
- 10 DEP 1 VIL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Deportivo win 25%, 27% end level, Villarreal win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Deportivo by 3+ | 1.8% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 6.8% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 16.7% |
| Draw | 27.0% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 24.1% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 15.0% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 8.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | 11 | 1 | 0.97 | +0.03 |
 Villarreal | 6 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.32 | +0.68 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 35' | Bruno Soriano Llido scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 47' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shot | 0.40 |
| 50' | Denis Suárez Fernández didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 94' | Bruno Soriano Llido scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Deportivo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35' | The game turned hereBruno Soriano Llido scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +26% VIL |
| 2 | 47' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +20% DEP |
| 3 | 48' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +8% VIL |
| 4 | 50' | Denis Suárez Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +11% DEP |
| 5 | 52' | Bruno Soriano Llido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% DEP |
| 6 | 59' | Alejandro Arribas Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% VIL |
| 7 | 89' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance | +2% VIL |
| 8 | 94' | Bruno Soriano Llido scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +11% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Deportivo 23% · draw 30% · Villarreal 47%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Deportivo 25% · draw 27% · Villarreal 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Málaga 2–0 Celta Jan 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Málaga
- Atlético 1–0 Levante Jan 2, 2016 · replay 66% for Atlético
- Espanyol 0–0 Barcelona Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Rayo 2–2 Real Sociedad Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Athletic 2–2 Las Palmas Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Betis 0–4 Eibar Jan 3, 2016 · replay 55% for Eibar
- Granada 2–1 Sevilla Jan 3, 2016 · replay 30% for Granada
- Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Getafe Jan 4, 2016 · replay 58% for Getafe