Matchday 18 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 3, 2016
Granada 2–1 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Granada beat Sevilla 2–1, but the replays lean toward Sevilla: 6 wins in 10 to Granada’s 2, 2 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 2.4 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 2 | 0.87 |
 Sevilla | 1 | 2.39 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 Granada very lucky · −70 Sevilla
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 2, 2 end level, Sevilla win 6.
- 1 GRA 2 SEV 1
- 2 GRA 2 SEV 0
- 3 GRA 1 SEV 1
- 4 GRA 1 SEV 1
- 5 GRA 1 SEV 5
- 6 GRA 0 SEV 3
- 7 GRA 1 SEV 3
- 8 GRA 0 SEV 2
- 9 GRA 2 SEV 3
- 10 GRA 1 SEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 19%, 22% end level, Sevilla win 59%. The line is what actually happened: Granada by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 1.7% |
| Granada by 2 | 5.1% |
| Granada by 1 | 12.5% |
| Draw | 22.0% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 24.9% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 16.8% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 17.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 9 | 2 | 0.87 | +1.13 |
 Sevilla | 16 | 1 | 2.39 | −1.39 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Isaac Ajayi Success scored from a shot | 0.45 |
| 36' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 45' | Víctor Machín Pérez scored from a shot | 0.85 |
| 81' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | José Antonio Reyes Calderón didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +7% GRA |
| 2 | 16' | Isaac Ajayi Success scored from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +13% GRA |
| 3 | 36' | Adalberto Peñaranda Maestre scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +11% GRA |
| 4 | 48' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% GRA |
| 5 | 50' | José Antonio Reyes Calderón didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% GRA |
| 6 | 62' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% GRA |
| 7 | 75' | Adil Rami didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +9% GRA |
| 8 | 81' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +14% GRA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 9% · draw 16% · Sevilla 75%
- Final margin
- Granada by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 19% · draw 22% · Sevilla 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Granada win 30% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Sevilla
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Málaga 2–0 Celta Jan 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Málaga
- Atlético 1–0 Levante Jan 2, 2016 · replay 66% for Atlético
- Espanyol 0–0 Barcelona Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Rayo 2–2 Real Sociedad Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Athletic 2–2 Las Palmas Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Betis 0–4 Eibar Jan 3, 2016 · replay 55% for Eibar
- Deportivo 1–2 Villarreal Jan 3, 2016 · replay 61% for Villarreal
- Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Getafe Jan 4, 2016 · replay 58% for Getafe