luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 18 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 2, 2016

Espanyol 0–0 Barcelona: who deserved to win?

Espanyol and Barcelona drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Espanyol win 1 of 10, Barcelona 6, and 3 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.2.

Full time

GoalsxG
Espanyol 0 0.23
Barcelona 0 1.01

January 2, 2016 · Stage Front Stadium · Referee: José Luis González González

Luck index +23 Espanyol about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Espanyol win 1, 3 end level, Barcelona win 6.

  1. 1 ESP 2 BAR 1
  2. 2 ESP 0 BAR 0
  3. 3 ESP 1 BAR 1
  4. 4 ESP 0 BAR 0
  5. 5 ESP 0 BAR 3
  6. 6 ESP 0 BAR 2
  7. 7 ESP 1 BAR 2
  8. 8 ESP 0 BAR 1
  9. 9 ESP 0 BAR 1
  10. 10 ESP 0 BAR 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Espanyol win 11%, 34% end level, Barcelona win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Espanyol by 3+0.0%
Espanyol by 21.4%
Espanyol by 19.2%
Draw33.6%
Barcelona by 132.8%
Barcelona by 216.0%
Barcelona by 3+7.1%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Espanyol400.23−0.23
Barcelona1001.01−1.01

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Espanyol’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Espanyol was ahead in it, below while Barcelona was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 8' Jordi Alba Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance +4% ESP
2 47' Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance +8% ESP
3 50' Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +3% ESP
4 51' Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% BAR
5 54' Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance +7% ESP
6 63' Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +3% ESP
7 73' Sergio Busquets i Burgos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% ESP
8 75' Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% ESP

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Espanyol 10% · draw 32% · Barcelona 59%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.6 for Espanyol
Luck-adjusted margin
Barcelona by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Espanyol 11% · draw 34% · Barcelona 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Espanyol · Barcelona

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