Matchday 18 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 4, 2016
Sporting 1–2 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Getafe beat Sporting 2–1, and the replays lean Getafe’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Sporting, 2 end level. Getafe made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 1 | 1.36 |
 Getafe | 2 | 1.98 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +42 Getafe lucky · −42 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 3, 2 end level, Getafe win 5.
- 1 SPO 2 GET 1
- 2 SPO 1 GET 0
- 3 SPO 2 GET 0
- 4 SPO 2 GET 2
- 5 SPO 2 GET 2
- 6 SPO 1 GET 5
- 7 SPO 2 GET 4
- 8 SPO 0 GET 2
- 9 SPO 1 GET 2
- 10 SPO 1 GET 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 31%, 23% end level, Getafe win 46%. The line is what actually happened: Getafe by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 5.5% |
| Sporting by 2 | 8.5% |
| Sporting by 1 | 17.2% |
| Draw | 22.7% |
| Getafe by 1 | 21.1% |
| Getafe by 2 | 13.2% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 11.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 17 | 1 | 1.36 | −0.36 |
 Getafe | 11 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.98 | +0.02 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Miguel Ángel Guerrero Martín didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 15' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 57' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 68' | Juan Torres Ruiz scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 70' | Pablo Sarabia García scored from a shot | 0.27 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Miguel Ángel Guerrero Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +8% GET |
| 2 | 15' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +15% SPO |
| 3 | 57' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +25% SPO |
| 4 | 68' | Juan Torres Ruiz scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +24% GET |
| 5 | 70' | The game turned herePablo Sarabia García scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +29% GET |
| 6 | 73' | Víctor Rodríguez Romero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% SPO |
| 7 | 75' | Ignacio Cases Mora didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% GET |
| 8 | 91' | Carlos Castro García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 21% · draw 24% · Getafe 56%
- Final margin
- Getafe by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 31% · draw 23% · Getafe 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Getafe win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Getafe
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Málaga 2–0 Celta Jan 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Málaga
- Atlético 1–0 Levante Jan 2, 2016 · replay 66% for Atlético
- Espanyol 0–0 Barcelona Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Rayo 2–2 Real Sociedad Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Athletic 2–2 Las Palmas Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Betis 0–4 Eibar Jan 3, 2016 · replay 55% for Eibar
- Granada 2–1 Sevilla Jan 3, 2016 · replay 30% for Granada
- Deportivo 1–2 Villarreal Jan 3, 2016 · replay 61% for Villarreal
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