Matchday 18 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 3, 2016
Betis 0–4 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Eibar beat Betis 4–0, and the replays lean Eibar’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Betis, 3 end level. Betis made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 0 | 1.61 |
 Eibar | 4 | 0.95 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Eibar lucky · −45 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 3, 3 end level, Eibar win 4.
- 1 BET 1 EIB 0
- 2 BET 2 EIB 1
- 3 BET 3 EIB 1
- 4 BET 0 EIB 0
- 5 BET 1 EIB 1
- 6 BET 2 EIB 2
- 7 BET 0 EIB 3
- 8 BET 0 EIB 2
- 9 BET 1 EIB 2
- 10 BET 1 EIB 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 32%, 26% end level, Eibar win 42%. The line is what actually happened: Eibar by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 4.0% |
| Betis by 2 | 9.1% |
| Betis by 1 | 18.5% |
| Draw | 26.1% |
| Eibar by 1 | 21.1% |
| Eibar by 2 | 14.1% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 7.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 11 | 0 | 1.61 | −1.61 |
 Eibar | 6 | 4 | 0.95 | +3.05 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Ander Capa Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 16' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 41' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shot | 0.59 |
| 68' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 70' | Adrián González Morales scored from a shot | 0.54 |
| 81' | Borja González Tomás scored from a shot | 0.01 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | The game turned hereAnder Capa Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +23% EIB |
| 2 | 16' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +14% EIB |
| 3 | 41' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +10% EIB |
| 4 | 41' | Francisco José Molinero Calderón didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% EIB |
| 5 | 56' | Álvaro Cejudo Carmona didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% EIB |
| 6 | 68' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +4% EIB |
| 7 | 68' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% EIB |
| 8 | 70' | Adrián González Morales scored from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +1% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 25% · draw 29% · Eibar 46%
- Final margin
- Eibar by 4
- Luck in goals
- 3.5 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eibar by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 32% · draw 26% · Eibar 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Eibar win 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 18 matches, 2015-16 · Betis · Eibar
More from matchday 18, 2015-16
- Málaga 2–0 Celta Jan 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Málaga
- Atlético 1–0 Levante Jan 2, 2016 · replay 66% for Atlético
- Espanyol 0–0 Barcelona Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 34% draws
- Rayo 2–2 Real Sociedad Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 32% draws
- Athletic 2–2 Las Palmas Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 16% draws
- Granada 2–1 Sevilla Jan 3, 2016 · replay 30% for Granada
- Deportivo 1–2 Villarreal Jan 3, 2016 · replay 61% for Villarreal
- Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Sporting 1–2 Getafe Jan 4, 2016 · replay 58% for Getafe