Matchday 23 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 5, 2016
Málaga 3–0 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Getafe 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Málaga win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.4.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Málaga about even · −9 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 8, 1 ends level, Getafe win 1.
- 1 MAL 1 GET 0
- 2 MAL 2 GET 0
- 3 MAL 2 GET 0
- 4 MAL 3 GET 0
- 5 MAL 3 GET 0
- 6 MAL 4 GET 0
- 7 MAL 4 GET 0
- 8 MAL 5 GET 0
- 9 MAL 0 GET 0
- 10 MAL 0 GET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 85%, 12% end level, Getafe win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 41.9% |
| Málaga by 2 | 23.4% |
| Málaga by 1 | 19.6% |
| Draw | 12.0% |
| Getafe by 1 | 2.5% |
| Getafe by 2 | 0.5% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 9 | 3 | 1.98 | +1.02 |
 Getafe | 5 | 0 | 0.39 | −0.39 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 23' | Christian Atsu Twasam scored from a shot | 0.54 |
| 42' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.48 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% GET |
| 2 | 8' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +13% MAL |
| 3 | 12' | Egor Filipenko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% GET |
| 4 | 18' | Pedro León Sánchez Gil didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 3% chance | +1% MAL |
| 5 | 23' | Christian Atsu Twasam scored from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +6% MAL |
| 6 | 27' | Moisés Gómez Bordonado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% MAL |
| 7 | 31' | Víctor Rodríguez Romero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% MAL |
| 8 | 42' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +2% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 95% · draw 4% · Getafe 1%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 85% · draw 12% · Getafe 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Atlético 3–1 Eibar Feb 6, 2016 · replay 87% for Atlético
- Rayo 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Rayo
- Athletic 0–0 Villarreal Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- Sporting 1–1 Deportivo Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Celta 1–1 Sevilla Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Betis 1–0 Valencia Feb 7, 2016 · replay 56% for Betis
- Granada 1–2 Real Madrid Feb 7, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Levante 0–2 Barcelona Feb 7, 2016 · replay 64% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 0–5 Real Sociedad Feb 8, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Sociedad