Matchday 23 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 7, 2016
Granada 1–2 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Granada 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Madrid win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Real Madrid made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 1 | 0.81 |
 Real Madrid | 2 | 1.96 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Real Madrid about even · −21 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 1, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 7.
- 1 GRA 2 RMA 1
- 2 GRA 0 RMA 0
- 3 GRA 1 RMA 1
- 4 GRA 0 RMA 4
- 5 GRA 0 RMA 3
- 6 GRA 0 RMA 3
- 7 GRA 1 RMA 3
- 8 GRA 0 RMA 2
- 9 GRA 0 RMA 1
- 10 GRA 0 RMA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 12%, 18% end level, Real Madrid win 70%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Granada by 2 | 2.6% |
| Granada by 1 | 9.0% |
| Draw | 18.0% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 23.5% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 20.7% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 25.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 14 | 1 | 0.81 | +0.19 |
 Real Madrid | 14 | 2 | 1.96 | +0.04 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | Karim Benzema scored from a shot | 0.55 |
| 56' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
| 59' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 84' | Luka Modrić scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% GRA |
| 2 | 29' | Karim Benzema scored from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +13% RMA |
| 3 | 39' | David Barral Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% RMA |
| 4 | 45' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% RMA |
| 5 | 56' | Karim Benzema didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +8% GRA |
| 6 | 59' | Youssef El-Arabi scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +31% GRA |
| 7 | 67' | Sergio Ramos García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% GRA |
| 8 | 84' | The game turned hereLuka Modrić scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +44% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 12% · draw 21% · Real Madrid 68%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Granada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Madrid by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 12% · draw 18% · Real Madrid 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Real Madrid
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Málaga 3–0 Getafe Feb 5, 2016 · replay 91% for Málaga
- Atlético 3–1 Eibar Feb 6, 2016 · replay 87% for Atlético
- Rayo 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Rayo
- Athletic 0–0 Villarreal Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- Sporting 1–1 Deportivo Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Celta 1–1 Sevilla Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Betis 1–0 Valencia Feb 7, 2016 · replay 56% for Betis
- Levante 0–2 Barcelona Feb 7, 2016 · replay 64% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 0–5 Real Sociedad Feb 8, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Sociedad