Matchday 23 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 8, 2016
Espanyol 0–5 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad beat Espanyol 5–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Sociedad win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Real Sociedad made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 0 | 0.32 |
 Real Sociedad | 5 | 1.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Real Sociedad about even · −10 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 0, 1 ends level, Real Sociedad win 9.
- 1 ESP 1 RSO 1
- 2 ESP 0 RSO 5
- 3 ESP 0 RSO 4
- 4 ESP 0 RSO 3
- 5 ESP 0 RSO 3
- 6 ESP 0 RSO 2
- 7 ESP 0 RSO 2
- 8 ESP 0 RSO 1
- 9 ESP 1 RSO 2
- 10 ESP 0 RSO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 3%, 13% end level, Real Sociedad win 84%. The line is what actually happened: Real Sociedad by 5.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 0.4% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 2.7% |
| Draw | 12.8% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 22.7% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 24.9% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 36.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 5 | 0 | 0.32 | −0.32 |
 Real Sociedad | 12 | 5 | 1.66 | +3.34 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 7' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 46' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 51' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 54' | Diego Antonio Reyes Rosales scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 89' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +19% RSO |
| 2 | 7' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +17% RSO |
| 3 | 17' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +0% ESP |
| 4 | 24' | Héctor Hernández Ortega didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +0% ESP |
| 5 | 46' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +2% ESP |
| 6 | 46' | Rubén Pardo Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +1% ESP |
| 7 | 51' | Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +3% RSO |
| 8 | 54' | Diego Antonio Reyes Rosales scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +1% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 0% · draw 2% · Real Sociedad 98%
- Final margin
- Real Sociedad by 5
- Luck in goals
- 2.7 for Real Sociedad
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 3% · draw 13% · Real Sociedad 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Sociedad win 91% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Málaga 3–0 Getafe Feb 5, 2016 · replay 91% for Málaga
- Atlético 3–1 Eibar Feb 6, 2016 · replay 87% for Atlético
- Rayo 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Rayo
- Athletic 0–0 Villarreal Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- Sporting 1–1 Deportivo Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Celta 1–1 Sevilla Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Betis 1–0 Valencia Feb 7, 2016 · replay 56% for Betis
- Granada 1–2 Real Madrid Feb 7, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Levante 0–2 Barcelona Feb 7, 2016 · replay 64% for Barcelona