Matchday 23 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 7, 2016
Levante 0–2 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Levante 2–0, and the replays lean Barcelona’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Levante, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 1.1). An own goal helped Barcelona.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Barcelona lucky · −36 Levante
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 2, 3 end level, Barcelona win 5.
- 1 LEV 1 BAR 0
- 2 LEV 3 BAR 1
- 3 LEV 1 BAR 1
- 4 LEV 0 BAR 0
- 5 LEV 0 BAR 0
- 6 LEV 0 BAR 3
- 7 LEV 1 BAR 3
- 8 LEV 1 BAR 2
- 9 LEV 0 BAR 1
- 10 LEV 1 BAR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 22%, 28% end level, Barcelona win 50%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 1.4% |
| Levante by 2 | 5.4% |
| Levante by 1 | 15.4% |
| Draw | 27.7% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 25.7% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 15.0% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 9.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 14 | 0 | 0.85 | −0.85 |
 Barcelona | 11 | 1 | 1.08 | −0.08 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 91' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.41 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% BAR |
| 2 | 20' | The game turned hereOwn goal by Jordi Alba Ramos, for BarcelonaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +26% BAR |
| 3 | 24' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +5% LEV |
| 4 | 28' | José Antonio García Rabasco didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BAR |
| 5 | 31' | Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% BAR |
| 6 | 37' | José Luis Morales Nogales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% BAR |
| 7 | 44' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% BAR |
| 8 | 62' | Simão Mate didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 26% · draw 31% · Barcelona 43%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 22% · draw 28% · Barcelona 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Málaga 3–0 Getafe Feb 5, 2016 · replay 91% for Málaga
- Atlético 3–1 Eibar Feb 6, 2016 · replay 87% for Atlético
- Rayo 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Rayo
- Athletic 0–0 Villarreal Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- Sporting 1–1 Deportivo Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Celta 1–1 Sevilla Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Betis 1–0 Valencia Feb 7, 2016 · replay 56% for Betis
- Granada 1–2 Real Madrid Feb 7, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Espanyol 0–5 Real Sociedad Feb 8, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Sociedad