luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 23 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 6, 2016

Athletic 0–0 Villarreal: who deserved to win?

Athletic and Villarreal drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Athletic win 4 of 10, Villarreal 2, and 4 end level. Athletic made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.3.

Full time

GoalsxG
Athletic Club 0 0.69
Villarreal 0 0.30

February 6, 2016 · San Mamés Barria · Referee: Mario Melero López

Luck index −13 Athletic about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Athletic win 4, 4 end level, Villarreal win 2.

  1. 1 ATH 2 VIL 1
  2. 2 ATH 1 VIL 0
  3. 3 ATH 1 VIL 0
  4. 4 ATH 2 VIL 0
  5. 5 ATH 0 VIL 0
  6. 6 ATH 0 VIL 0
  7. 7 ATH 0 VIL 0
  8. 8 ATH 0 VIL 0
  9. 9 ATH 1 VIL 2
  10. 10 ATH 0 VIL 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Athletic win 42%, 42% end level, Villarreal win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Athletic by 3+3.1%
Athletic by 29.9%
Athletic by 128.9%
Draw42.4%
Villarreal by 113.3%
Villarreal by 22.3%
Villarreal by 3+0.1%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Athletic1000.69−0.69
Villarreal200.30−0.30

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Athletic’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Athletic was ahead in it, below while Villarreal was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 1' Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +1% ATH
2 6' Iñaki Williams Arthuer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +2% VIL
3 11' Mikel San José Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance +7% VIL
4 14' Iñaki Williams Arthuer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance +1% VIL
5 32' Iñaki Williams Arthuer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +1% VIL
6 48' Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +1% VIL
7 83' Roberto Soldado Rillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance +11% ATH
8 87' Eneko Bóveda Altube didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +5% VIL

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Athletic 42% · draw 43% · Villarreal 15%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.3 for Villarreal
Luck-adjusted margin
Athletic by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Athletic 42% · draw 42% · Villarreal 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · Athletic · Villarreal

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