Matchday 23 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 6, 2016
Atlético 3–1 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Eibar 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Atlético Madrid | 3 | 2.11 |
 Eibar | 1 | 0.36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Atlético about even · −13 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Atlético win 8, 2 end level, Eibar win 0.
- 1 ATM 1 EIB 0
- 2 ATM 1 EIB 0
- 3 ATM 2 EIB 0
- 4 ATM 2 EIB 0
- 5 ATM 3 EIB 0
- 6 ATM 3 EIB 0
- 7 ATM 4 EIB 0
- 8 ATM 5 EIB 0
- 9 ATM 0 EIB 0
- 10 ATM 1 EIB 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Atlético win 79%, 16% end level, Eibar win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Atlético by 3+ | 32.6% |
| Atlético by 2 | 23.2% |
| Atlético by 1 | 23.5% |
| Draw | 15.8% |
| Eibar by 1 | 4.0% |
| Eibar by 2 | 0.8% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Atlético | 13 | 3 | 2.11 | +0.89 |
 Eibar | 6 | 1 | 0.36 | +0.64 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 55' | José María Giménez de Vargas scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 62' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 90' | Fernando José Torres Sanz scored from a shot | 0.54 |
When it happened
Atlético’s chance of winning
As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33' | Ángel Martín Correa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% EIB |
| 2 | 43' | José Ignacio Peleteiro Ramallo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% ATM |
| 3 | 45' | Sergio Gontán Gallardo scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +27% EIB |
| 4 | 54' | Ángel Martín Correa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +9% EIB |
| 5 | 55' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% EIB |
| 6 | 55' | José María Giménez de Vargas scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +20% ATM |
| 7 | 62' | Saúl Ñíguez Esclapez scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +30% ATM |
| 8 | 77' | Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +2% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Atlético 95% · draw 4% · Eibar 1%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Atlético 79% · draw 16% · Eibar 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 87% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · Atlético · Eibar
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