Matchday 23 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 7, 2016
Betis 1–0 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Betis beat Valencia 1–0, and the replays lean Betis’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Valencia, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 1.0).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 | 1.03 |
 Valencia | 0 | 1.02 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Betis lucky · −44 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 4, 3 end level, Valencia win 3.
- 1 BET 2 VAL 1
- 2 BET 1 VAL 0
- 3 BET 2 VAL 0
- 4 BET 4 VAL 1
- 5 BET 1 VAL 1
- 6 BET 0 VAL 0
- 7 BET 1 VAL 1
- 8 BET 0 VAL 2
- 9 BET 1 VAL 2
- 10 BET 0 VAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 41%, 30% end level, Valencia win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Betis by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 5.4% |
| Betis by 2 | 10.9% |
| Betis by 1 | 24.6% |
| Draw | 30.1% |
| Valencia by 1 | 17.9% |
| Valencia by 2 | 7.8% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 3.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 6 | 1 | 1.03 | −0.03 |
 Valencia | 7 | 0 | 1.02 | −1.02 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 48' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.62 |
| 50' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Shkodran Mustafi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% BET |
| 2 | 42' | Ricky van Wolfswinkel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% VAL |
| 3 | 46' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% BET |
| 4 | 48' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 62% chance | +11% BET |
| 5 | 50' | Álvaro Negredo Sánchez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +15% BET |
| 6 | 67' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% BET |
| 7 | 80' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% BET |
| 8 | 92' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +9% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 34% · draw 34% · Valencia 32%
- Final margin
- Betis by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 41% · draw 30% · Valencia 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Betis win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Málaga 3–0 Getafe Feb 5, 2016 · replay 91% for Málaga
- Atlético 3–1 Eibar Feb 6, 2016 · replay 87% for Atlético
- Rayo 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Rayo
- Athletic 0–0 Villarreal Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- Sporting 1–1 Deportivo Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Celta 1–1 Sevilla Feb 7, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Granada 1–2 Real Madrid Feb 7, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Levante 0–2 Barcelona Feb 7, 2016 · replay 64% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 0–5 Real Sociedad Feb 8, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Sociedad