Matchday 23 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 7, 2016
Celta 1–1 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Celta and Sevilla drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Celta win 5 of 10, Sevilla 2, and 3 end level. Celta made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.60 |
 Sevilla | 1 | 0.83 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −15 Celta about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 5, 3 end level, Sevilla win 2.
- 1 CEL 1 SEV 0
- 2 CEL 1 SEV 0
- 3 CEL 2 SEV 0
- 4 CEL 2 SEV 0
- 5 CEL 3 SEV 0
- 6 CEL 0 SEV 0
- 7 CEL 0 SEV 0
- 8 CEL 0 SEV 0
- 9 CEL 0 SEV 2
- 10 CEL 1 SEV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 52%, 25% end level, Sevilla win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 10.5% |
| Celta by 2 | 16.1% |
| Celta by 1 | 25.5% |
| Draw | 25.3% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 15.4% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 5.4% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 25 | 1 | 1.60 | −0.60 |
 Sevilla | 9 | 1 | 0.83 | +0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 42' | Daniel Filipe Martins Carriço scored from a shot | 0.41 |
| 52' | Claudio Beauvue didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 63' | Claudio Beauvue scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 90' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
As low as 16% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35' | Daniel Filipe Martins Carriço didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% CEL |
| 2 | 42' | Daniel Filipe Martins Carriço scored from a shotFinishing · 41% chance | +19% SEV |
| 3 | 52' | Claudio Beauvue didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +13% SEV |
| 4 | 63' | Claudio Beauvue scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +35% CEL |
| 5 | 72' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% SEV |
| 6 | 73' | Pedro Pablo Hernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SEV |
| 7 | 88' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% SEV |
| 8 | 90' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +15% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 56% · draw 26% · Sevilla 18%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Sevilla
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 52% · draw 25% · Sevilla 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Málaga 3–0 Getafe Feb 5, 2016 · replay 91% for Málaga
- Atlético 3–1 Eibar Feb 6, 2016 · replay 87% for Atlético
- Rayo 2–0 Las Palmas Feb 6, 2016 · replay 93% for Rayo
- Athletic 0–0 Villarreal Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- Sporting 1–1 Deportivo Feb 6, 2016 · drawn; replay 37% draws
- Betis 1–0 Valencia Feb 7, 2016 · replay 56% for Betis
- Granada 1–2 Real Madrid Feb 7, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Levante 0–2 Barcelona Feb 7, 2016 · replay 64% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 0–5 Real Sociedad Feb 8, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Sociedad