Matchday 23 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 6, 2016
Rayo 2–0 Las Palmas: who deserved to win?
Rayo beat Las Palmas 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Rayo win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 2.55 |
 Las Palmas | 0 | 0.45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Rayo about even · −7 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 9, 1 ends level, Las Palmas win 0.
- 1 RAY 1 LPA 0
- 2 RAY 1 LPA 0
- 3 RAY 2 LPA 0
- 4 RAY 2 LPA 0
- 5 RAY 3 LPA 0
- 6 RAY 3 LPA 0
- 7 RAY 4 LPA 0
- 8 RAY 4 LPA 0
- 9 RAY 6 LPA 0
- 10 RAY 1 LPA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 88%, 9% end level, Las Palmas win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Rayo by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 48.3% |
| Rayo by 2 | 22.1% |
| Rayo by 1 | 17.8% |
| Draw | 8.9% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 2.3% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 0.4% |
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 19 | 2 | 2.55 | −0.55 |
 Las Palmas | 9 | 0 | 0.45 | −0.45 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shot | 0.81 |
| 57' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 73' | Tiago Manuel Dias Correia scored from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LPA |
| 2 | 2' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shotFinishing · 81% chance | +4% RAY |
| 3 | 3' | David Simón Rodríguez Santana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% RAY |
| 4 | 39' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +2% LPA |
| 5 | 57' | Jozabed Sánchez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +4% LPA |
| 6 | 59' | Juan Carlos Valerón Santana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% RAY |
| 7 | 67' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% RAY |
| 8 | 73' | Tiago Manuel Dias Correia scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +5% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 96% · draw 3% · Las Palmas 1%
- Final margin
- Rayo by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 88% · draw 9% · Las Palmas 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Rayo win 93% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · Rayo · Las Palmas
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Málaga 3–0 Getafe Feb 5, 2016 · replay 91% for Málaga
- Atlético 3–1 Eibar Feb 6, 2016 · replay 87% for Atlético
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- Betis 1–0 Valencia Feb 7, 2016 · replay 56% for Betis
- Granada 1–2 Real Madrid Feb 7, 2016 · replay 79% for Real Madrid
- Levante 0–2 Barcelona Feb 7, 2016 · replay 64% for Barcelona
- Espanyol 0–5 Real Sociedad Feb 8, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Sociedad