Matchday 23 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 6, 2016
Sporting 1–1 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Sporting and Deportivo drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Sporting win 5 of 10, Deportivo 1, and 4 end level. Sporting made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sporting Gijón | 1 | 0.92 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 0.29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −19 Sporting about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sporting win 5, 4 end level, Deportivo win 1.
- 1 SPO 1 DEP 0
- 2 SPO 1 DEP 0
- 3 SPO 2 DEP 1
- 4 SPO 2 DEP 0
- 5 SPO 3 DEP 0
- 6 SPO 1 DEP 1
- 7 SPO 0 DEP 0
- 8 SPO 1 DEP 1
- 9 SPO 1 DEP 1
- 10 SPO 0 DEP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sporting win 50%, 37% end level, Deportivo win 13%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sporting by 3+ | 5.7% |
| Sporting by 2 | 14.3% |
| Sporting by 1 | 30.5% |
| Draw | 36.8% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 10.8% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 1.8% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sporting | 11 | 1 | 0.92 | +0.08 |
 Deportivo | 5 | 1 | 0.29 | +0.71 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 31' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 40' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Sporting’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +25% SPO |
| 2 | 40' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +26% DEP |
| 3 | 47' | Carlos Carmona Bonet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% DEP |
| 4 | 58' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% DEP |
| 5 | 73' | Jonathan Rodríguez Menéndez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% DEP |
| 6 | 80' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% SPO |
| 7 | 82' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +9% DEP |
| 8 | 90' | Pablo Pérez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% DEP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sporting 51% · draw 37% · Deportivo 12%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sporting by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Sporting 50% · draw 37% · Deportivo 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · Sporting · Deportivo
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