Matchday 25 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 20, 2016
Betis 1–1 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Betis and Sporting drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Betis win 7 of 10, Sporting 1, and 2 end level. Betis made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Betis | 1 | 1.58 |
 Sporting Gijón | 1 | 0.23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −33 Betis unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Betis win 7, 2 end level, Sporting win 1.
- 1 BET 1 SPO 0
- 2 BET 1 SPO 0
- 3 BET 1 SPO 0
- 4 BET 3 SPO 1
- 5 BET 2 SPO 0
- 6 BET 4 SPO 1
- 7 BET 4 SPO 0
- 8 BET 0 SPO 0
- 9 BET 0 SPO 0
- 10 BET 0 SPO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Betis win 72%, 22% end level, Sporting win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Betis by 3+ | 18.9% |
| Betis by 2 | 21.6% |
| Betis by 1 | 31.6% |
| Draw | 21.6% |
| Sporting by 1 | 5.4% |
| Sporting by 2 | 0.8% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Betis | 18 | 1 | 1.58 | −0.58 |
 Sporting | 5 | 1 | 0.23 | +0.77 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 64' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 66' | Germán Alejandro Pezzella scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 82' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
Betis’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37' | Ricky van Wolfswinkel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SPO |
| 2 | 58' | Petros Matheus dos Santos Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +9% SPO |
| 3 | 64' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SPO |
| 4 | 64' | Carlos Castro García scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +33% SPO |
| 5 | 66' | Germán Alejandro Pezzella scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +35% BET |
| 6 | 75' | Charly Musonda Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% SPO |
| 7 | 82' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +17% SPO |
| 8 | 83' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SPO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Betis 74% · draw 20% · Sporting 6%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Sporting
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Betis 72% · draw 22% · Sporting 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 25 matches, 2015-16 · Betis · Sporting
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
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- Espanyol 1–0 Deportivo Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Espanyol
- Celta 3–2 Eibar Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Celta
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