luckadjusted
La Liga Matchday 7 · 2026-27

Matchday 25 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 21, 2016

Atlético 0–0 Villarreal: who deserved to win?

Atlético and Villarreal drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Atlético win 4 of 10, Villarreal 2, and 4 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.3.

Full time

GoalsxG
Atlético Madrid 0 0.71
Villarreal 0 0.35

February 21, 2016 · Estadio Vicente Calderón · Referee: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias

Luck index −12 Atlético about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Atlético win 4, 4 end level, Villarreal win 2.

  1. 1 ATM 1 VIL 0
  2. 2 ATM 1 VIL 0
  3. 3 ATM 2 VIL 1
  4. 4 ATM 2 VIL 0
  5. 5 ATM 0 VIL 0
  6. 6 ATM 0 VIL 0
  7. 7 ATM 0 VIL 0
  8. 8 ATM 0 VIL 0
  9. 9 ATM 0 VIL 1
  10. 10 ATM 0 VIL 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Atlético win 41%, 43% end level, Villarreal win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Atlético by 3+2.9%
Atlético by 29.6%
Atlético by 128.1%
Draw42.6%
Villarreal by 114.1%
Villarreal by 22.6%
Villarreal by 3+0.2%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Atlético1200.71−0.71
Villarreal500.35−0.35

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Atlético’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Atlético was ahead in it, below while Villarreal was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 31' Daniele Bonera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% ATM
2 34' Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% VIL
3 42' Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +5% VIL
4 62' Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance +6% ATM
5 75' Denis Suárez Fernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% ATM
6 80' Diego Roberto Godín Leal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +4% VIL
7 84' Fernando José Torres Sanz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +3% VIL
8 90' Luciano Vietto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +6% VIL

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Atlético 42% · draw 40% · Villarreal 17%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.3 for Villarreal
Luck-adjusted margin
Atlético by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Atlético 41% · draw 43% · Villarreal 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 25 matches, 2015-16 · Atlético · Villarreal

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