Matchday 25 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 20, 2016
Espanyol 1–0 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Espanyol beat Deportivo 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Espanyol win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 1 | 2.46 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 0 | 0.94 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Espanyol about even · −16 Deportivo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Espanyol win 8, 1 ends level, Deportivo win 1.
- 1 ESP 1 DEP 0
- 2 ESP 2 DEP 1
- 3 ESP 5 DEP 3
- 4 ESP 3 DEP 1
- 5 ESP 3 DEP 0
- 6 ESP 3 DEP 0
- 7 ESP 5 DEP 1
- 8 ESP 6 DEP 0
- 9 ESP 1 DEP 1
- 10 ESP 1 DEP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Espanyol win 77%, 14% end level, Deportivo win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Espanyol by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Espanyol by 3+ | 38.2% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 19.5% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 18.8% |
| Draw | 14.0% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 6.6% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 2.1% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Espanyol | 16 | 1 | 2.46 | −1.46 |
 Deportivo | 17 | 0 | 0.94 | −0.94 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 51' | Marco Asensio Willemsen scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 73' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 78' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 80' | Víctor Sánchez Mata didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Espanyol’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Luis Alberto Romero Alconchel didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% ESP |
| 2 | 13' | Oriol Riera Magem didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% ESP |
| 3 | 19' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% DEP |
| 4 | 37' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% DEP |
| 5 | 51' | Marco Asensio Willemsen scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +22% ESP |
| 6 | 67' | Oriol Riera Magem didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% ESP |
| 7 | 73' | Marco Asensio Willemsen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +2% DEP |
| 8 | 77' | Alejandro Arribas Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Espanyol 75% · draw 15% · Deportivo 11%
- Final margin
- Espanyol by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Espanyol by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Espanyol 77% · draw 14% · Deportivo 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Espanyol win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Levante 3–0 Getafe Feb 19, 2016 · replay 69% for Levante
- Betis 1–1 Sporting Feb 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Celta 3–2 Eibar Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–2 Barcelona Feb 20, 2016 · replay 81% for Barcelona
- Atlético 0–0 Villarreal Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 43% draws
- Granada 1–2 Valencia Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Valencia
- Rayo 2–2 Sevilla Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 6% draws
- Málaga 1–1 Real Madrid Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Real Sociedad Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Sociedad