Matchday 25 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 21, 2016
Granada 1–2 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Valencia beat Granada 2–1, but the replays call it even: Valencia win 4 of 10, Granada 4, 2 end level. Granada made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 1 | 1.82 |
 Valencia | 2 | 1.44 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Valencia lucky · −49 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 4, 2 end level, Valencia win 4.
- 1 GRA 1 VAL 0
- 2 GRA 3 VAL 2
- 3 GRA 2 VAL 0
- 4 GRA 4 VAL 1
- 5 GRA 2 VAL 2
- 6 GRA 0 VAL 0
- 7 GRA 1 VAL 4
- 8 GRA 1 VAL 3
- 9 GRA 0 VAL 1
- 10 GRA 1 VAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 38%, 23% end level, Valencia win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Valencia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 7.4% |
| Granada by 2 | 11.8% |
| Granada by 1 | 18.5% |
| Draw | 22.5% |
| Valencia by 1 | 19.5% |
| Valencia by 2 | 12.3% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 7.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 15 | 1 | 1.82 | −0.82 |
 Valencia | 11 | 2 | 1.44 | +0.56 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 54' | Daniel Parejo Muñoz scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 58' | David Barral Torres didn’t score from a shot | 0.63 |
| 90' | Santiago Mina Lorenzo scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 92' | Edgar Antonio Méndez Ortega scored from a shot | 0.17 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29' | Francisco Alcácer García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% GRA |
| 2 | 39' | André Filipe Tavares Gomes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% GRA |
| 3 | 54' | The game turned hereDaniel Parejo Muñoz scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +28% VAL |
| 4 | 58' | David Barral Torres didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 63% chance | +23% VAL |
| 5 | 58' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% VAL |
| 6 | 69' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +8% VAL |
| 7 | 76' | Youssef El-Arabi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% VAL |
| 8 | 79' | Isaac Ajayi Success didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% VAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 48% · draw 23% · Valencia 29%
- Final margin
- Valencia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 38% · draw 23% · Valencia 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Valencia win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 25 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Valencia
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Levante 3–0 Getafe Feb 19, 2016 · replay 69% for Levante
- Betis 1–1 Sporting Feb 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Deportivo Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Espanyol
- Celta 3–2 Eibar Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–2 Barcelona Feb 20, 2016 · replay 81% for Barcelona
- Atlético 0–0 Villarreal Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 43% draws
- Rayo 2–2 Sevilla Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 6% draws
- Málaga 1–1 Real Madrid Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Real Sociedad Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Sociedad