Matchday 25 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 20, 2016
Celta 3–2 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Celta beat Eibar 3–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Celta win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Celta made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 3 | 2.27 |
 Eibar | 2 | 1.36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Celta about even · −16 Eibar
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 8, 1 ends level, Eibar win 1.
- 1 CEL 3 EIB 2
- 2 CEL 2 EIB 1
- 3 CEL 2 EIB 0
- 4 CEL 2 EIB 0
- 5 CEL 4 EIB 1
- 6 CEL 3 EIB 0
- 7 CEL 6 EIB 2
- 8 CEL 5 EIB 0
- 9 CEL 1 EIB 1
- 10 CEL 2 EIB 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 77%, 14% end level, Eibar win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Celta by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 37.6% |
| Celta by 2 | 19.7% |
| Celta by 1 | 19.4% |
| Draw | 13.7% |
| Eibar by 1 | 6.2% |
| Eibar by 2 | 2.6% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 14 | 3 | 2.27 | +0.73 |
 Eibar | 7 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.36 | +0.64 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 30' | John Guidetti scored from a shot | 0.34 |
| 38' | Jonathan Castro Otto scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 57' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 66' | John Guidetti didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 68' | John Guidetti scored from a shot | 0.67 |
| 83' | Saúl Berjón Pérez scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 86' | Takashi Inui scored from a shot | 0.01 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Jon Ansotegi Gorostola didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% CEL |
| 2 | 13' | Daniel Wass didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% EIB |
| 3 | 18' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% EIB |
| 4 | 30' | John Guidetti scored from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +17% CEL |
| 5 | 35' | Théo Bongonda Mbul''Ofeko Batombo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% EIB |
| 6 | 38' | Jonathan Castro Otto scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +12% CEL |
| 7 | 57' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +4% CEL |
| 8 | 86' | Takashi Inui scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +2% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 60% · draw 24% · Eibar 16%
- Final margin
- Celta by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Celta
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Celta by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 77% · draw 14% · Eibar 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Celta win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 25 matches, 2015-16 · Celta · Eibar
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