Matchday 25 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 19, 2016
Levante 3–0 Getafe: who deserved to win?
Levante beat Getafe 3–0, and the replays lean Levante’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Getafe, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.9 expected goals to 1.7).
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Levante lucky · −31 Getafe
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 6, 2 end level, Getafe win 2.
- 1 LEV 1 GET 0
- 2 LEV 1 GET 0
- 3 LEV 3 GET 1
- 4 LEV 3 GET 1
- 5 LEV 4 GET 1
- 6 LEV 5 GET 1
- 7 LEV 1 GET 1
- 8 LEV 3 GET 3
- 9 LEV 0 GET 2
- 10 LEV 2 GET 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 60%, 19% end level, Getafe win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Levante by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 20.3% |
| Levante by 2 | 17.4% |
| Levante by 1 | 21.9% |
| Draw | 19.4% |
| Getafe by 1 | 13.1% |
| Getafe by 2 | 5.6% |
| Getafe by 3+ | 2.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 12 (1 pen) | 3 | 1.87 | +1.13 |
 Getafe | 14 | 0 | 1.74 | −1.74 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 14' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 42' | Giuseppe Rossi scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 70' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shot | 0.90 |
| 80' | Joan Verdú Fernández scored from a shot | 0.17 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | José Antonio García Rabasco didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +1% GET |
| 2 | 3' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% GET |
| 3 | 3' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +6% GET |
| 4 | 9' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +20% LEV |
| 5 | 14' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +9% LEV |
| 6 | 32' | Giuseppe Rossi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +2% GET |
| 7 | 42' | Giuseppe Rossi scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +3% LEV |
| 8 | 70' | Álvaro Vázquez García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 90% chance | +7% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 67% · draw 21% · Getafe 11%
- Final margin
- Levante by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Levante by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 60% · draw 19% · Getafe 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Levante win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Betis 1–1 Sporting Feb 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Deportivo Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Espanyol
- Celta 3–2 Eibar Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–2 Barcelona Feb 20, 2016 · replay 81% for Barcelona
- Atlético 0–0 Villarreal Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 43% draws
- Granada 1–2 Valencia Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Valencia
- Rayo 2–2 Sevilla Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 6% draws
- Málaga 1–1 Real Madrid Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Real Sociedad Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Sociedad