Matchday 25 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 21, 2016
Athletic 0–1 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad beat Athletic 1–0, but the replays call it even: Real Sociedad win 3 of 10, Athletic 3, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 0 | 0.80 |
 Real Sociedad | 1 | 0.63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Real Sociedad lucky · −49 Athletic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 3, 4 end level, Real Sociedad win 3.
- 1 ATH 2 RSO 1
- 2 ATH 2 RSO 1
- 3 ATH 2 RSO 0
- 4 ATH 1 RSO 1
- 5 ATH 0 RSO 0
- 6 ATH 1 RSO 1
- 7 ATH 0 RSO 0
- 8 ATH 0 RSO 2
- 9 ATH 0 RSO 1
- 10 ATH 1 RSO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 30%, 38% end level, Real Sociedad win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Real Sociedad by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 1.9% |
| Athletic by 2 | 6.6% |
| Athletic by 1 | 21.3% |
| Draw | 38.3% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 22.0% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 7.2% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 2.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 10 | 0 | 0.80 | −0.80 |
 Real Sociedad | 9 | 1 | 0.63 | +0.37 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Asier Illarramendi Andonegi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% ATH |
| 2 | 16' | The game turned hereJonathas Cristian de Jesus scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +24% RSO |
| 3 | 30' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +3% ATH |
| 4 | 50' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% RSO |
| 5 | 59' | Beñat Etxebarria Urkiaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% RSO |
| 6 | 62' | Aymeric Laporte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +6% RSO |
| 7 | 66' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% RSO |
| 8 | 71' | Iker Muniain Goñi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 36% · draw 36% · Real Sociedad 28%
- Final margin
- Real Sociedad by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Real Sociedad
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 30% · draw 38% · Real Sociedad 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Sociedad win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Levante 3–0 Getafe Feb 19, 2016 · replay 69% for Levante
- Betis 1–1 Sporting Feb 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Deportivo Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Espanyol
- Celta 3–2 Eibar Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–2 Barcelona Feb 20, 2016 · replay 81% for Barcelona
- Atlético 0–0 Villarreal Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 43% draws
- Granada 1–2 Valencia Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Valencia
- Rayo 2–2 Sevilla Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 6% draws
- Málaga 1–1 Real Madrid Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws