Matchday 25 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 21, 2016
Rayo 2–2 Sevilla: who deserved to win?
Rayo and Sevilla drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Rayo win 1 of 10, Sevilla 8, and 1 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 3.8 expected goals to 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 1.74 |
 Sevilla | 2 | 3.84 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Rayo lucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 1, 1 ends level, Sevilla win 8.
- 1 RAY 1 SEV 0
- 2 RAY 2 SEV 2
- 3 RAY 0 SEV 7
- 4 RAY 1 SEV 6
- 5 RAY 1 SEV 5
- 6 RAY 1 SEV 5
- 7 RAY 0 SEV 3
- 8 RAY 0 SEV 3
- 9 RAY 2 SEV 4
- 10 RAY 2 SEV 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 6%, 6% end level, Sevilla win 88%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.8% |
| Rayo by 2 | 1.4% |
| Rayo by 1 | 3.5% |
| Draw | 6.4% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 10.5% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 14.6% |
| Sevilla by 3+ | 62.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 14 | 2 | 1.74 | +0.26 |
 Sevilla | 16 | 2 | 3.84 | −1.84 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Steven N''Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 19' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shot | 0.56 |
| 20' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 42' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves scored from a shot | 0.48 |
| 48' | Michael Krohn-Dehli didn’t score from a shot | 0.66 |
| 57' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.44 |
| 61' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shot | 0.56 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Steven N''Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +16% SEV |
| 2 | 19' | Vicente Iborra De La Fuente scored from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +8% SEV |
| 3 | 42' | Alberto Mateus Contreiras Gonçalves scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +9% RAY |
| 4 | 48' | Michael Krohn-Dehli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +11% RAY |
| 5 | 55' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% SEV |
| 6 | 57' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 44% chance | +7% RAY |
| 7 | 61' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores scored from a shotFinishing · 56% chance | +16% RAY |
| 8 | 86' | Kevin Gameiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 8% · draw 10% · Sevilla 83%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 6% · draw 6% · Sevilla 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Levante 3–0 Getafe Feb 19, 2016 · replay 69% for Levante
- Betis 1–1 Sporting Feb 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Deportivo Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Espanyol
- Celta 3–2 Eibar Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–2 Barcelona Feb 20, 2016 · replay 81% for Barcelona
- Atlético 0–0 Villarreal Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 43% draws
- Granada 1–2 Valencia Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Valencia
- Málaga 1–1 Real Madrid Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Real Sociedad Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Sociedad