Matchday 25 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 21, 2016
Málaga 1–1 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Málaga and Real Madrid drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Málaga win 3 of 10, Real Madrid 5, and 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.6 expected goals to 1.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 1 | 1.56 |
 Real Madrid | 1 | 1.60 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Málaga about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 3, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 5.
- 1 MAL 1 RMA 0
- 2 MAL 1 RMA 0
- 3 MAL 4 RMA 1
- 4 MAL 2 RMA 2
- 5 MAL 1 RMA 1
- 6 MAL 0 RMA 4
- 7 MAL 0 RMA 2
- 8 MAL 1 RMA 3
- 9 MAL 2 RMA 3
- 10 MAL 1 RMA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 29%, 23% end level, Real Madrid win 47%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 4.8% |
| Málaga by 2 | 7.7% |
| Málaga by 1 | 16.6% |
| Draw | 23.5% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 21.7% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 13.4% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 12.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 11 | 1 | 1.56 | −0.56 |
 Real Madrid | 14 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.60 | −0.60 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 18' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 32' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 35' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 38' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 65' | Raúl Albentosa Redal scored from a shot | 0.24 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +8% RMA |
| 2 | 20' | Ricardo Jorge Luz Horta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% RMA |
| 3 | 23' | Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% MAL |
| 4 | 32' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +27% RMA |
| 5 | 35' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +14% MAL |
| 6 | 38' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +13% RMA |
| 7 | 65' | Raúl Albentosa Redal scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +29% MAL |
| 8 | 78' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 35% · draw 26% · Real Madrid 39%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 29% · draw 23% · Real Madrid 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Levante 3–0 Getafe Feb 19, 2016 · replay 69% for Levante
- Betis 1–1 Sporting Feb 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Deportivo Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Espanyol
- Celta 3–2 Eibar Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Celta
- Las Palmas 1–2 Barcelona Feb 20, 2016 · replay 81% for Barcelona
- Atlético 0–0 Villarreal Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 43% draws
- Granada 1–2 Valencia Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Valencia
- Rayo 2–2 Sevilla Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 6% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Real Sociedad Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Sociedad