Matchday 25 · La Liga 2015-16 · February 20, 2016
Las Palmas 1–2 Barcelona: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Las Palmas 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 1 | 1.35 |
 Barcelona | 2 | 2.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Barcelona about even · −19 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 1, 1 ends level, Barcelona win 8.
- 1 LPA 1 BAR 0
- 2 LPA 1 BAR 1
- 3 LPA 0 BAR 5
- 4 LPA 0 BAR 4
- 5 LPA 2 BAR 5
- 6 LPA 0 BAR 3
- 7 LPA 0 BAR 2
- 8 LPA 3 BAR 5
- 9 LPA 1 BAR 2
- 10 LPA 1 BAR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 12%, 14% end level, Barcelona win 74%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 3.2% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 7.6% |
| Draw | 14.0% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 20.8% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 19.6% |
| Barcelona by 3+ | 33.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 16 | 1 | 1.35 | −0.35 |
 Barcelona | 12 | 2 | 2.66 | −0.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 5' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shot | 0.43 |
| 9' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 38' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 48' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 89' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +14% BAR |
| 2 | 9' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +16% LPA |
| 3 | 14' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +6% LPA |
| 4 | 26' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% LPA |
| 5 | 38' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +8% LPA |
| 6 | 38' | The game turned hereNeymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +24% BAR |
| 7 | 48' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +7% LPA |
| 8 | 89' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +15% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 14% · draw 17% · Barcelona 70%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 12% · draw 14% · Barcelona 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 25 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Barcelona
More from matchday 25, 2015-16
- Levante 3–0 Getafe Feb 19, 2016 · replay 69% for Levante
- Betis 1–1 Sporting Feb 20, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Espanyol 1–0 Deportivo Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Espanyol
- Celta 3–2 Eibar Feb 20, 2016 · replay 84% for Celta
- Atlético 0–0 Villarreal Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 43% draws
- Granada 1–2 Valencia Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Valencia
- Rayo 2–2 Sevilla Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 6% draws
- Málaga 1–1 Real Madrid Feb 21, 2016 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Athletic 0–1 Real Sociedad Feb 21, 2016 · replay 51% for Real Sociedad