Matchday 29 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 11, 2016
Málaga 1–0 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Málaga beat Sporting 1–0, but the replays lean toward Sporting: 3 wins in 10 to Málaga’s 3, 4 end level. Sporting made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 1 | 0.45 |
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 0.87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Málaga lucky · −55 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 3, 4 end level, Sporting win 3.
- 1 MAL 1 SPO 0
- 2 MAL 1 SPO 0
- 3 MAL 2 SPO 0
- 4 MAL 1 SPO 1
- 5 MAL 0 SPO 0
- 6 MAL 0 SPO 0
- 7 MAL 0 SPO 0
- 8 MAL 0 SPO 2
- 9 MAL 0 SPO 1
- 10 MAL 1 SPO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 26%, 37% end level, Sporting win 37%. The line is what actually happened: Málaga by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 1.1% |
| Málaga by 2 | 5.7% |
| Málaga by 1 | 19.1% |
| Draw | 37.4% |
| Sporting by 1 | 24.9% |
| Sporting by 2 | 8.8% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 13 | 1 | 0.45 | +0.55 |
 Sporting | 9 | 0 | 0.87 | −0.87 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 74' | Carlos Castro García didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MAL |
| 2 | 16' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SPO |
| 3 | 24' | Juan Pablo Añor Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +24% MAL |
| 4 | 28' | Carlos Carmona Bonet didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% MAL |
| 5 | 61' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% MAL |
| 6 | 74' | Pablo Pérez Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% MAL |
| 7 | 74' | Carlos Castro García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +13% MAL |
| 8 | 74' | Alen Halilović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% MAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 18% · draw 35% · Sporting 47%
- Final margin
- Málaga by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Málaga
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sporting by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 26% · draw 37% · Sporting 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Málaga win 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 29 matches, 2015-16 · Málaga · Sporting
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Rayo 1–1 Eibar Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Atlético 3–0 Deportivo Mar 12, 2016 · replay 92% for Atlético
- Celta 1–0 Real Sociedad Mar 12, 2016 · replay 45% for Celta
- Barcelona 6–0 Getafe Mar 12, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 4–2 Villarreal Mar 13, 2016 · replay 91% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–0 Valencia Mar 13, 2016 · replay 58% for Levante
- Las Palmas 1–2 Real Madrid Mar 13, 2016 · replay 46% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 3–1 Betis Mar 13, 2016 · replay 89% for Athletic
- Granada 1–1 Espanyol Mar 14, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws