Matchday 29 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 13, 2016
Las Palmas 1–2 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Real Madrid beat Las Palmas 2–1, but the replays call it even: Real Madrid win 3 of 10, Las Palmas 4, 3 end level. Las Palmas made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 1 | 1.45 |
 Real Madrid | 2 | 1.01 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Real Madrid lucky · −54 Las Palmas
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 4, 3 end level, Real Madrid win 3.
- 1 LPA 2 RMA 1
- 2 LPA 1 RMA 0
- 3 LPA 2 RMA 0
- 4 LPA 3 RMA 0
- 5 LPA 0 RMA 0
- 6 LPA 0 RMA 0
- 7 LPA 0 RMA 0
- 8 LPA 0 RMA 2
- 9 LPA 0 RMA 1
- 10 LPA 0 RMA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 41%, 26% end level, Real Madrid win 33%. The line is what actually happened: Real Madrid by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 6.3% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 12.3% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 22.6% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 19.3% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 9.3% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 4.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 15 | 1 | 1.45 | −0.45 |
 Real Madrid | 12 | 2 | 1.01 | +0.99 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 23' | Sergio Ramos García scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 86' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 88' | Carlos Henrique Casimiro scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Willian José da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +8% RMA |
| 2 | 23' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% LPA |
| 3 | 23' | Sergio Ramos García scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +25% RMA |
| 4 | 57' | David García Santana didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% RMA |
| 5 | 64' | Francisco José Perdomo Borges didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% RMA |
| 6 | 74' | Jerónimo Figueroa Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% RMA |
| 7 | 86' | Willian José da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +35% LPA |
| 8 | 88' | The game turned hereCarlos Henrique Casimiro scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +44% RMA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 48% · draw 25% · Real Madrid 27%
- Final margin
- Real Madrid by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Real Madrid
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 41% · draw 26% · Real Madrid 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Madrid win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 29 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Real Madrid
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Málaga 1–0 Sporting Mar 11, 2016 · replay 45% for Málaga
- Rayo 1–1 Eibar Mar 12, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Atlético 3–0 Deportivo Mar 12, 2016 · replay 92% for Atlético
- Celta 1–0 Real Sociedad Mar 12, 2016 · replay 45% for Celta
- Barcelona 6–0 Getafe Mar 12, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 4–2 Villarreal Mar 13, 2016 · replay 91% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–0 Valencia Mar 13, 2016 · replay 58% for Levante
- Athletic 3–1 Betis Mar 13, 2016 · replay 89% for Athletic
- Granada 1–1 Espanyol Mar 14, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws