Matchday 29 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 14, 2016
Granada 1–1 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Granada and Espanyol drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Granada win 2 of 10, Espanyol 4, and 4 end level. Espanyol made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.4. An own goal helped Espanyol.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Granada | 1 | 0.40 |
 Espanyol | 1 | 0.66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Granada about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Granada win 2, 4 end level, Espanyol win 4.
- 1 GRA 1 ESP 0
- 2 GRA 2 ESP 0
- 3 GRA 0 ESP 0
- 4 GRA 1 ESP 1
- 5 GRA 0 ESP 0
- 6 GRA 1 ESP 1
- 7 GRA 1 ESP 3
- 8 GRA 0 ESP 1
- 9 GRA 0 ESP 1
- 10 GRA 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Granada win 23%, 44% end level, Espanyol win 34%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Granada by 3+ | 0.6% |
| Granada by 2 | 4.2% |
| Granada by 1 | 18.1% |
| Draw | 43.5% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 25.4% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 6.9% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Granada | 8 | 1 | 0.40 | +0.60 |
 Espanyol | 10 | 0 | 0.66 | −0.66 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 39' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shot | 0.15 |
When it happened
Granada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31' | Óscar Esau Duarte Gaitán didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% GRA |
| 2 | 39' | Rubén Rochina Naixes scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +24% GRA |
| 3 | 60' | Álvaro González Soberón didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% GRA |
| 4 | 75' | Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% GRA |
| 5 | 80' | Mamadou Sylla Diallo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% GRA |
| 6 | 80' | Álvaro González Soberón didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% GRA |
| 7 | 81' | Own goal by nan, for EspanyolOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +42% ESP |
| 8 | 90' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% ESP |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Granada 22% · draw 41% · Espanyol 37%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Granada 23% · draw 44% · Espanyol 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 29 matches, 2015-16 · Granada · Espanyol
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