Matchday 29 · La Liga 2015-16 · March 12, 2016
Rayo 1–1 Eibar: who deserved to win?
Rayo and Eibar drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Rayo win 5 of 10, Eibar 2, and 3 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 1.30 |
 Eibar | 1 | 0.82 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −16 Rayo about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 5, 3 end level, Eibar win 2.
- 1 RAY 1 EIB 0
- 2 RAY 1 EIB 0
- 3 RAY 1 EIB 0
- 4 RAY 3 EIB 1
- 5 RAY 3 EIB 0
- 6 RAY 2 EIB 2
- 7 RAY 0 EIB 0
- 8 RAY 1 EIB 1
- 9 RAY 0 EIB 2
- 10 RAY 1 EIB 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 52%, 27% end level, Eibar win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 11.1% |
| Rayo by 2 | 15.7% |
| Rayo by 1 | 25.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Eibar by 1 | 14.4% |
| Eibar by 2 | 5.2% |
| Eibar by 3+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 12 | 1 | 1.30 | −0.30 |
 Eibar | 7 | 1 | 0.82 | +0.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | José Eduardo Rosa Vale de Castro scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 35' | Gonzalo Escalante scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 57' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | José Eduardo Rosa Vale de Castro scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +20% RAY |
| 2 | 22' | Gonzalo Escalante didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% RAY |
| 3 | 35' | Gonzalo Escalante scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +24% EIB |
| 4 | 45' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% RAY |
| 5 | 46' | Borja González Tomás didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% RAY |
| 6 | 57' | Nicolás Ladislao Fedor Flores didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +15% EIB |
| 7 | 59' | Takashi Inui didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +9% RAY |
| 8 | 93' | Diego Javier Llorente Ríos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +7% EIB |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 50% · draw 29% · Eibar 22%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Eibar
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 52% · draw 27% · Eibar 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 29 matches, 2015-16 · Rayo · Eibar
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Málaga 1–0 Sporting Mar 11, 2016 · replay 45% for Málaga
- Atlético 3–0 Deportivo Mar 12, 2016 · replay 92% for Atlético
- Celta 1–0 Real Sociedad Mar 12, 2016 · replay 45% for Celta
- Barcelona 6–0 Getafe Mar 12, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 4–2 Villarreal Mar 13, 2016 · replay 91% for Sevilla
- Levante 1–0 Valencia Mar 13, 2016 · replay 58% for Levante
- Las Palmas 1–2 Real Madrid Mar 13, 2016 · replay 46% for Real Madrid
- Athletic 3–1 Betis Mar 13, 2016 · replay 89% for Athletic
- Granada 1–1 Espanyol Mar 14, 2016 · drawn; replay 44% draws